Hit Rates Lie (When the Sample Is Small)

A player at 8-for-10 on a prop looks unstoppable. But flip a fair coin 10 times and you'll get 8+ heads about 5.5% of the time — pure chance produces "hot streaks" constantly. Ten games hints at form; it cannot prove a skill change.

That's why our cards show L5, L10, L15, and L20 windows: agreement across windows is far more meaningful than any single hot stretch.

Extreme streaks tend to fall back toward the player's true level — not because the universe balances, but because the streak was partly luck and luck doesn't repeat on schedule. Practical rule: when a hit rate screams, check why. Higher lineup slot? Weak opposing pitching? Those reasons can persist. "Just been hot"? Expect regression, and note the book has usually priced the streak in already (that -180 didn't happen by accident).

• Do L10 and L20 agree, or is this one hot week?
• Is there a mechanism — role change, matchup, park, weather?
• Has the price already absorbed it? A 90% hit rate at -250 offers little
• What does the 10-game average vs. the line look like, not just over/under counts?

Our AI Analyzer runs exactly this kind of layered check per prop.