Strength of Schedule

Every record is a record against somebody. Two teams with identical records can have played entirely different levels of opposition, and in a sport with an unbalanced schedule — which is most of them — that difference can be larger than the gap in the records.

Strength of schedule summarises the quality of opponents faced. The simplest version averages opponents' win percentage; better versions use a rating system and account for opponents' opponents.

There is a real difficulty hiding here: to know how good a team's opponents were, you need to know how good those opponents' opponents were, and so on. Everything depends on everything.

Rating systems solve this by iterating until the numbers stop moving. That works, but it means early-season ratings are unstable — a team's rating can swing because a team they played in week 2 had a good week in week 6.

The practical consequence: treat schedule adjustments in the first quarter of a season as rough, and expect them to move.

Past strength of schedule explains a record. Remaining strength of schedule is the one that helps you think about what comes next, and it is often more lopsided than people expect — particularly in fantasy, where a favourable playoff-week schedule can matter more than a small gap in talent.

That is the idea behind playoff schedule strength in fantasy: not who is best, but who has the easiest path in the weeks that decide your season.