Sat, Sep 5 · 5:00 PM ET
Alcorn at Southern Miss
Southern Miss favored by 46.5 · total 52.5
AlcornBraves
Away · SWAC
+46.5
-230
—
ML
Southern MissGolden Eagles
Home · Sun Belt
-46.5
+175
—
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Alcorn State | Southern Miss | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | — | 90% |
| Passing | — | 97% |
| Rushing | — | 102%* |
| Receiving | — | 82% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- The spread has moved from -21 to -46.5 since it opened, toward the home side. It crossed 24 and 28, changing the result in 17.4% of historical games.
- A total of 52.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Alcorn State
0-1 ATS · 0-1 SU
1-0 O/U · 0-1 away
Southern Miss
7-15-1 ATS · 6-17 SU
10-13 O/U · 5-6 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 46.5 — the 35+ point band. In 449 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (43.5–52.7%) is taken into account.
- Total 52.5 — this game's spread sits in the 28+ point band. In 715 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 54.5% of the time (95% range 50.9–58.2%), against a 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
Line movement
The number hasn't moved. The spread has held at -21 and the total at 50.5 across 200 checks between Aug 10 – Aug 29. Most college lines sit still until news moves them — 83% of the games we track haven't budged — so a still number is the normal state, not missing data.
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.