Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET
Boston College at Cincinnati
Cincinnati favored by 25.5 · total 41.5
Boston CollegeEagles
Away · ACC
+25.5
+180
—
ML
CincinnatiBearcats
Home · Big 12
-25.5
-238
—
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Boston College | Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16% | 8% |
| Passing | 8% | 4% |
| Rushing | -62%* | 4% |
| Receiving | 23% | 15% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 14 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- The spread has moved from -7.5 to -25.5 since it opened, toward the home side. It crossed 10 and 14 and 17 and 21 and 24, changing the result in 24.3% of historical games.
- A total of 41.5 sits among the lowest quarter of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 19.2 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Boston College
11-11 ATS · 7-15 SU
12-10 O/U · 5-4 away
Cincinnati
10-12-1 ATS · 10-13 SU
9-13-1 O/U · 5-6 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 25.5 — the 21-28 point band. In 805 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.3% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.9–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 41.5 — this game's spread sits in the 21-28 point band. In 688 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 50.4% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–54.2%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Cincinnati -6.3 versus the market's -25.5 — a 19.2-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-7.5 → -7.5unmoved
Total
54.5 → 51.5-3.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.