Sun, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET
Louisville at Ole Miss
Ole Miss favored by 2.5
LouisvilleCardinals
Away · ACC
+2.5
+135
+140
ML
Ole MissRebels
Home · SEC
-2.5
-175
-180
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Louisville | Ole Miss | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35% | 50% |
| Passing | 0% | 79% |
| Rushing | 85% | 84% |
| Receiving | 18% | 19% |
The read
- Neutral site, so neither team gets home-field advantage — worth about 2.6 points in college football, more than most lines move all week.
- At 2.5 the line sits just short of 3, so the games decided by exactly 3 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
- The spread has moved from -6.5 to -2.5 since it opened, toward the away side. It crossed 3, changing the result in 10.6% of historical games.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Louisville
10-13 ATS · 15-8 SU
13-10 O/U · 5-5 away
Ole Miss
16-10 ATS · 21-5 SU
9-17 O/U · 9-6 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 2.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 982 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.7% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.8%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Ole Miss -3.7 versus the market's -2.5 — a 1.2-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-6.5 → -2.5+4.0
Total
55.5 → 68.5+13.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.