Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET
Mississippi State at Minnesota
Minnesota favored by 2.5 · total 53.5
Mississippi StateBulldogs
Away · SEC
+2.5
-110
+110
ML
MinnesotaGolden Gophers
Home · Big Ten
-2.5
-110
-130
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Mississippi State | Minnesota | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34% | 65% |
| Passing | -0%* | 97% |
| Rushing | 87% | 1000%* |
| Receiving | 28% | 45% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- At 2.5 the line sits just short of 3, so the games decided by exactly 3 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
- A total of 53.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Mississippi State
13-10 ATS · 5-18 SU
13-10 O/U · 7-3 away
Minnesota
13-10 ATS · 14-9 SU
9-14 O/U · 6-6 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 2.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 982 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.7% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 53.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Minnesota -3.5 versus the market's -2.5 — a 1.0-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
The number hasn't moved. The spread has held at -2.5 and the total at 53.5 across 7 checks between Sep 5. Most college lines sit still until news moves them — 83% of the games we track haven't budged — so a still number is the normal state, not missing data.
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.