Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET
Missouri State at Texas A&M
Missouri StateBears
Away · Conference USA
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ML
Texas A&MAggies
Home · SEC
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ML
Returning production
| Missouri State | Texas A&M | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31% | 73% |
| Passing | 5% | 97% |
| Rushing | -3%* | 68% |
| Receiving | 47% | 61% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 17 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Missouri State
6-6 ATS · 6-6 SU
5-7 O/U · 2-3 away
Texas A&M
8-16 ATS · 17-7 SU
14-10 O/U · 4-9 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Texas A&M -29.8
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-39.5 → -41.5-2.0
Total
52.5 → 52.5unmoved
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.