Sat, Sep 12 · 10:30 PM ET
Montana State at Nevada
Montana State favored by 4.5 · total 49.5
Montana StateBobcats
Away · Big Sky
-4.5
-108
-198
ML
NevadaWolf Pack
Home · Mountain West
+4.5
-112
+164
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Montana State | Nevada | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | — | 36% |
| Passing | — | -130%* |
| Rushing | — | -12%* |
| Receiving | — | 41% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- A total of 49.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Montana State
2-2 ATS · 4-0 SU
4-0 O/U · 0-1 away
Nevada
11-11-2 ATS · 5-19 SU
10-14 O/U · 4-6-2 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 4.5 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 49.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
Line movement
The number hasn't moved. The spread has held at +4.5 and the total at 49.5 across 3 checks between Sep 8. Most college lines sit still until news moves them — 83% of the games we track haven't budged — so a still number is the normal state, not missing data.
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.