Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
New Mexico at New Mexico State
New Mexico favored by 11.5 · total 48.5
New MexicoLobos
Away · Mountain West
-11.5
-110
-455
ML
New Mexico StateAggies
Home · Conference USA
+11.5
-110
+350
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| New Mexico | New Mexico State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 58% | 24% |
| Passing | 74% | 40% |
| Rushing | 71% | 81% |
| Receiving | 43% | 30% |
The read
- The spread has moved from 12.5 to 11.5 since it opened, toward the home side.
- A total of 48.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
New Mexico
15-9 ATS · 13-11 SU
13-11 O/U · 9-4 away
New Mexico State
10-11 ATS · 4-17 SU
12-8-1 O/U · 5-4 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 11.5 — the 10-14 point band. In 1,140 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.3–51.1%) is taken into account.
- Total 48.5 — this game's spread sits in the 7-14 point band. In 1,954 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 48.6% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies New Mexico State +10 versus the market's +11.5 — a 1.5-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
12.5 → 11.5-1.0
Total
49.5 → 48.5-1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.