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Sat, Sep 5 ยท 9:30 PM ET

Portland State at San Diego State

San Diego State favored by 40.5 ยท total 57.5

Portland StateVikings

Away ยท Big Sky

+40.5

-110

โ€”

ML

San Diego StateAztecs

Home ยท Pac-12

-40.5

-110

โ€”

ML

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead โ€” or as well โ€” and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.

SpreadPortland State +40.5-110
SpreadSan Diego State -40.5-110
TotalOver 57.5-105
TotalUnder 57.5-115

Returning production

Portland StateSan Diego State
Overallโ€”99%
Passingโ€”100%
Rushingโ€”100%
Receivingโ€”97%

The read

  • A total of 57.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result โ€” overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.

Team profile

Portland StatepercentileSan Diego State

With the ball

โ€”Efficiency (PPA)32
โ€”Success rate44
โ€”Explosiveness18
โ€”Points per trip34

Without it

โ€”Efficiency allowed97
โ€”Success rate allowed93
โ€”Havoc42
โ€”Stuff rate19

Last three seasons

Portland State

2-0 ATS ยท 0-2 SU

1-1 O/U ยท 2-0 away

San Diego State

14-8 ATS ยท 10-12 SU

9-13 O/U ยท 7-3 home

A record, not a signal โ€” we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.

How games at these numbers have gone

  • Spread 40.5 โ€” the 35+ point band. In 449 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.1% of the time โ€” a coin flip once the 95% range (43.5โ€“52.7%) is taken into account.
  • Total 57.5 โ€” this game's spread sits in the 28+ point band. In 715 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 54.5% of the time (95% range 50.9โ€“58.2%), against a 52.38% break-even rate at โˆ’110.

Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick โ€” see every band.

Total57.5O -105 ยท U -115

Line movement

The number hasn't moved. The spread has held at -40.5 and the total at 57.5 across 2 checks between Aug 30. Most college lines sit still until news moves them โ€” 83% of the games we track haven't budged โ€” so a still number is the normal state, not missing data.

"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open โ€” DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.

Other games

Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.