Sat, Sep 12 · 8:00 PM ET
Prairie View at Baylor
Baylor favored by 39.5 · total 56.5
Prairie View
Away
+39.5
-105
—
ML
BaylorBears
Home · Big 12
-39.5
-115
—
ML
Tracking isn't available for this game — we couldn't match both teams to our results feed, and we won't take a pick we can't grade.
Returning production
| Prairie View | Baylor | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | — | 60% |
| Passing | — | 78% |
| Rushing | — | 68% |
| Receiving | — | 47% |
The read
- Forecast winds around 18 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- A total of 56.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Baylor
9-14 ATS · 11-12 SU
13-9-1 O/U · 5-7 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 39.5 — the 35+ point band. In 449 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (43.5–52.7%) is taken into account.
- Total 56.5 — this game's spread sits in the 28+ point band. In 715 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 54.5% of the time (95% range 50.9–58.2%), against a 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
Line movement
The number hasn't moved. The spread has held at -39.5 and the total at 56.5 across 11 checks between Sep 11. Most college lines sit still until news moves them — 83% of the games we track haven't budged — so a still number is the normal state, not missing data.
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.