Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET
Rice at Notre Dame
Notre Dame favored by 44.5 · total 52.5
RiceOwls
Away · American Athletic
+44.5
-112
—
ML
Notre DameFighting Irish
Home · FBS Independents
-44.5
-108
—
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Rice | Notre Dame | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 39% | 51% |
| Passing | -317%* | 91% |
| Rushing | 77% | 12% |
| Receiving | 54% | 38% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- A total of 52.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 13.5 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Rice
9-13-1 ATS · 8-15 SU
9-13 O/U · 4-6-1 away
Notre Dame
19-9 ATS · 24-4 SU
15-13 O/U · 9-5 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 44.5 — the 35+ point band. In 449 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (43.5–52.7%) is taken into account.
- Total 52.5 — this game's spread sits in the 28+ point band. In 715 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 54.5% of the time (95% range 50.9–58.2%), against a 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Notre Dame -31 versus the market's -44.5 — a 13.5-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
The number hasn't moved. The spread has held at -44.5 and the total at 52.5 across 6 checks between Sep 5. Most college lines sit still until news moves them — 83% of the games we track haven't budged — so a still number is the normal state, not missing data.
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.