Sat, Aug 29 · 3:00 PM ET
San Jose State at USC
USC favored by 24.5
San Jose StateSpartans
Away · Mountain West
+24.5
-1300
—
ML
USCTrojans
Home · Big Ten
-24.5
+700
—
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| San José State | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4% | 59% |
| Passing | -8%* | 91% |
| Rushing | 36% | 78% |
| Receiving | 3% | 27% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- The spread has moved from -38.5 to -24.5 since it opened, toward the away side. It crossed 28, changing the result in 11.2% of historical games.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
San José State
8-15 ATS · 9-14 SU
12-11 O/U · 4-6 away
USC
11-13 ATS · 14-10 SU
12-12 O/U · 7-4 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 24.5 — the 21-28 point band. In 805 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.3% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.9–51.8%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies USC -25.3 versus the market's -24.5
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-38.5 → -38.5unmoved
Total
59.5 → 61.5+2.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.