Mon, Sep 7 · 7:30 PM ET
SMU at Florida State
SMUMustangs
Away · ACC
—
-1850
ML
Florida StateSeminoles
Home · ACC
—
+900
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| SMU | Florida State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 57% | 40% |
| Passing | 97% | 13% |
| Rushing | 1% | 28% |
| Receiving | 37% | 65% |
The read
- Forecast winds around 16 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
SMU
13-11 ATS · 18-6 SU
10-14 O/U · 5-7 away
Florida State
8-15 ATS · 6-17 SU
7-16 O/U · 7-6 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Florida State -0.5
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
1.5 → 6.5+5.0
Total
53.5 → 51.5-2.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.