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Sat, Sep 5 ยท 8:00 PM ET

South Dakota State at Northwestern

Northwestern favored by 12.5 ยท total 46.5

South Dakota StateJackrabbits

Away ยท MVFC

+12.5

-108

+500

ML

NorthwesternWildcats

Home ยท Big Ten

-12.5

-112

-700

ML

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead โ€” or as well โ€” and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.

SpreadSouth Dakota State +12.5-108
SpreadNorthwestern -12.5-112
TotalOver 46.5-108
TotalUnder 46.5-112
MoneylineSouth Dakota State to win+500
MoneylineNorthwestern to win-700

Returning production

South Dakota StateNorthwestern
Overallโ€”89%
Passingโ€”94%
Rushingโ€”88%
Receivingโ€”86%

The read

  • A total of 46.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result โ€” overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.

Team profile

South Dakota StatepercentileNorthwestern

With the ball

โ€”Efficiency (PPA)39
โ€”Success rate58
โ€”Explosiveness21
โ€”Points per trip15

Without it

โ€”Efficiency allowed47
โ€”Success rate allowed14
โ€”Havoc38
โ€”Stuff rate13

Last three seasons

South Dakota State

0-1 ATS ยท 0-1 SU

1-0 O/U ยท 0-1 away

Northwestern

10-11-2 ATS ยท 9-14 SU

12-11 O/U ยท 3-1 home

A record, not a signal โ€” we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.

How games at these numbers have gone

  • Spread 12.5 โ€” the 10-14 point band. In 1,140 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.2% of the time โ€” a coin flip once the 95% range (45.3โ€“51.1%) is taken into account.
  • Total 46.5 โ€” this game's spread sits in the 7-14 point band. In 1,954 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 48.6% of the time โ€” a coin flip once the 95% range (46.4โ€“50.8%) is taken into account.

Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick โ€” see every band.

Total46.5O -108 ยท U -112

Line movement

The number hasn't moved. The spread has held at -12.5 and the total at 46.5 across 15 checks between Aug 30. Most college lines sit still until news moves them โ€” 83% of the games we track haven't budged โ€” so a still number is the normal state, not missing data.

"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open โ€” DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.

Other games

Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.