Thu, Oct 8 · 7:35 PM ET
South Florida at UTSA
UTSA favored by 5.5 · total 49.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
South FloridaBulls
Away · American Athletic
+5.5
+190
ML
UTSARoadrunners
Home · American Athletic
-5.5
-230
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| South Florida | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13% | 67% |
| Passing | 6% | 93% |
| Rushing | -1%* | 36% |
| Receiving | 24% | 61% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Played indoors, so weather is off the table entirely.
- The spread has moved from -6.5 to -5.5 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 49.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
South Florida
14-10 ATS · 14-10 SU
15-9 O/U · 6-5 away
UTSA
14-11 ATS · 14-11 SU
17-7-1 O/U · 10-2 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 5.5 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 49.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies UTSA -3 versus the market's -5.5 — a 2.5-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-6.5 → -5.5+1.0
Total
54.5 → 49.5-5.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.