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Sat, Sep 12 ยท 1:00 PM ET

Stony Brook at Ball State

Ball State favored by 14.5 ยท total 57.5

Stony BrookSeawolves

Away ยท Coastal Athletic

+14.5

-108

+575

ML

Ball StateCardinals

Home ยท Mid-American

-14.5

-112

-850

ML

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead โ€” or as well โ€” and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.

SpreadStony Brook +14.5-108
SpreadBall State -14.5-112
TotalOver 57.5-112
TotalUnder 57.5-108
MoneylineStony Brook to win+575
MoneylineBall State to win-850

Returning production

Stony BrookBall State
Overallโ€”6%
Passingโ€”0%
Rushingโ€”-104%*
Receivingโ€”32%

* Outside 0โ€“100% on purpose โ€” production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.

The read

  • At 14.5 the line sits just past 14, so the games decided by exactly 14 fall on the underdog's side of this bet.
  • A total of 57.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result โ€” overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.

Team profile

Stony BrookpercentileBall State

With the ball

โ€”Efficiency (PPA)1
โ€”Success rate0
โ€”Explosiveness72
โ€”Points per trip3

Without it

โ€”Efficiency allowed41
โ€”Success rate allowed21
โ€”Havoc23
โ€”Stuff rate70

Last three seasons

Ball State

12-10 ATS ยท 6-16 SU

13-8-1 O/U ยท 7-2 home

A record, not a signal โ€” we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.

How games at these numbers have gone

  • Spread 14.5 โ€” the 14-17 point band. In 708 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 52.8% of the time โ€” a coin flip once the 95% range (49.1โ€“56.5%) is taken into account.
  • Total 57.5 โ€” this game's spread sits in the 14-21 point band. In 1,186 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 47.0% of the time, so the other side has been the more frequent of the two โ€” though still short of the 52.38% break-even rate at โˆ’110.

Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick โ€” see every band.

Total57.5O -112 ยท U -108

Line movement

The number hasn't moved. The spread has held at -14.5 and the total at 57.5 across 9 checks between Sep 9. Most college lines sit still until news moves them โ€” 83% of the games we track haven't budged โ€” so a still number is the normal state, not missing data.

"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open โ€” DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.

Other games

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