Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET
Texas State at Texas
Texas favored by 51.5 · total 65.5
Texas StateBobcats
Away · Pac-12
+51.5
+110
—
ML
TexasLonghorns
Home · SEC
-51.5
-140
—
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Texas State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 76% | 72% |
| Passing | 100% | 85% |
| Rushing | 48% | 126%* |
| Receiving | 79% | 55% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 16 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- The spread has moved from -30.5 to -51.5 since it opened, toward the home side.
- A total of 65.5 sits among the highest quarter of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 32.0 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Texas State
10-14 ATS · 13-11 SU
12-12 O/U · 4-5 away
Texas
13-15 ATS · 22-6 SU
11-16-1 O/U · 8-5 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 51.5 — the 35+ point band. In 449 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (43.5–52.7%) is taken into account.
- Total 65.5 — this game's spread sits in the 28+ point band. In 715 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 54.5% of the time (95% range 50.9–58.2%), against a 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Texas -19.5 versus the market's -51.5 — a 32.0-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-30.5 → -30.5unmoved
Total
60.5 → 59.5-1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.