Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET
UCF at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh favored by 8.5 · total 56.5
UCFKnights
Away · Big 12
+8.5
-105
+280
ML
PittsburghPanthers
Home · ACC
-8.5
-115
-355
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| UCF | Pittsburgh | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25% | 40% |
| Passing | 4% | 59% |
| Rushing | -17%* | 67% |
| Receiving | 58% | 24% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- A total of 56.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
UCF
7-15 ATS · 7-15 SU
12-10 O/U · 3-7 away
Pittsburgh
13-11 ATS · 13-11 SU
12-12 O/U · 7-5 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 8.5 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,074 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 51.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (48.2–54.2%) is taken into account.
- Total 56.5 — this game's spread sits in the 7-14 point band. In 1,954 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 48.6% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Pittsburgh -5.6 versus the market's -8.5 — a 2.8-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
The number hasn't moved. The spread has held at -8.5 and the total at 56.5 across 4 checks between Sep 6. Most college lines sit still until news moves them — 83% of the games we track haven't budged — so a still number is the normal state, not missing data.
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.