All games

Sat, Sep 5 ยท 10:00 PM ET

UNLV at Hawaii

UNLV favored by 14.5

UNLVRebels

Away ยท Mountain West

-14.5

-3500

โ€”

ML

HawaiiRainbow Warriors

Home ยท Mountain West

+14.5

+1400

โ€”

ML

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead โ€” or as well โ€” and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.

SpreadUNLV -14.5-3500
SpreadHawaii +14.5+1400

Returning production

UNLVHawai'i
Overall15%65%
Passing4%91%
Rushing31%21%
Receiving14%52%

The read

  • At 14.5 the line sits just past 14, so the games decided by exactly 14 fall on the underdog's side of this bet.
  • The spread has moved from 1.5 to 14.5 since it opened, toward the away side. It crossed 3 and 7 and 10 and 14, changing the result in 22.2% of historical games.
  • SP+ and the market differ by 12.9 points โ€” SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.

Team profile

UNLVpercentileHawai'i

With the ball

88Efficiency (PPA)53
86Success rate36
81Explosiveness78
87Points per trip56

Without it

32Efficiency allowed43
24Success rate allowed49
34Havoc54
25Stuff rate15

Last three seasons

UNLV

13-12 ATS ยท 18-7 SU

11-14 O/U ยท 7-5 away

Hawai'i

14-9-1 ATS ยท 13-11 SU

9-15 O/U ยท 11-2-1 home

A record, not a signal โ€” we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.

How games at these numbers have gone

  • Spread 14.5 โ€” the 14-17 point band. In 708 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 52.8% of the time โ€” a coin flip once the 95% range (49.1โ€“56.5%) is taken into account.

Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick โ€” see every band.

SP+ team strength ยท 2026

AwayUNLV#55 (+3.6)scores 31.4 ยท allows 28
HomeHawaii#83 (-2.6)scores 25.9 ยท allows 29.1

SP+ implies Hawaii +1.6 versus the market's +14.5 โ€” a 12.9-point disagreement.

Context, not a pick โ€” tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.

Line movement

Spread (home)

1.5 โ†’ 14.5+13.0

Total

58.5 โ†’ 31.5-27.0

crossed 3 & 7 & 10 & 14 ยท flips 22.2%104 checks ยท Aug 5 โ€“ Sep 6

"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open โ€” DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.

Other games

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