Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
Utah at Iowa State
Utah favored by 11.5 · total 49.5
UtahUtes
Away · Big 12
-11.5
-110
-485
ML
Iowa StateCyclones
Home · Big 12
+11.5
-110
+370
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Utah | Iowa State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 68% | 2% |
| Passing | 97% | 3% |
| Rushing | 83% | 5% |
| Receiving | 29% | -0%* |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 15 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- A total of 49.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 7.2 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Utah
12-10-1 ATS · 14-9 SU
12-11 O/U · 6-5-1 away
Iowa State
13-11 ATS · 17-7 SU
11-12 O/U · 7-4 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 11.5 — the 10-14 point band. In 1,140 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.3–51.1%) is taken into account.
- Total 49.5 — this game's spread sits in the 7-14 point band. In 1,954 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 48.6% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Iowa State +4.3 versus the market's +11.5 — a 7.2-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
The number hasn't moved. The spread has held at +11.5 and the total at 49.5 across 11 checks between Sep 20. Most college lines sit still until news moves them — 83% of the games we track haven't budged — so a still number is the normal state, not missing data.
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.