Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET
Wake Forest at Purdue
Wake Forest favored by 4.5 · total 50.5
Wake ForestDemon Deacons
Away · ACC
-4.5
-112
-198
ML
PurdueBoilermakers
Home · Big Ten
+4.5
-108
+164
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Wake Forest | Purdue | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14% | 48% |
| Passing | 23% | 97% |
| Rushing | 5% | 61% |
| Receiving | 13% | 22% |
The read
- A total of 50.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 3.3 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Wake Forest
11-11-1 ATS · 11-12 SU
12-10-1 O/U · 6-3-1 away
Purdue
7-15 ATS · 1-21 SU
11-11 O/U · 3-8 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 4.5 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 50.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Purdue +1.2 versus the market's +4.5 — a 3.3-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
4.5 → 4.5unmoved
Total
49.5 → 50.5+1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed three times daily; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.