NFL · CHI

Bears by 3the single most likely final margin

In every game since 1999 with a 3-4 point home underdog, the most common result was the home team winning by exactly 3. 26.5% were decided by 3 or fewer; 7.5% went to overtime.

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The single most likely final tonight isn't an Eagles win. In 868 games like this since 1999, the most common margin was the home dog by exactly 3.

Computed from game logs · first seen 2026-09-28

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