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โšพ Today's MLB Slate

Tuesday, July 21 ยท 7:59 PM ET

13 games8 A-rated picks
Top Picks
Bobby's AI DeskUseful?Tuesday, July 21

Twins-Guardians Highlight Tight MLB Pitching Matchups

A slate of 16 games features several strong pitching duels and heavy public action on totals.

Read the full briefing โ†’

Tuesday's MLB slate includes 16 games, with notable pitching showdowns like the Twins at Guardians and Dodgers at Phillies. At Progressive Field, Kendry Rojas (2.79 ERA) faces Parker Messick (2.73 ERA), both with solid strikeout totals and solid recent form. Meanwhile, the Dodgers send Justin Wrobleski (2.69 ERA, 10-2 record) to Citizens Bank Park to face Zack Wheeler (2.13 ERA, 10-1), a marquee duel between two top starters.

Public betting heavily favors the Over on several games, including the Guardians-Twins (86% of tickets, 87% of money) and the Orioles-Red Sox (90% of tickets and money), signaling strong expectations for offense despite quality pitching. The Mariners-Reds total also draws 67% of public tickets and 78% of money on the Over.

Injury news centers on the Diamondbacks, who are without Corbin Carroll (day-to-day, elbow) and dealing with multiple players on the 60-day IL, including Justin Martinez and Ryne Nelson. Their probable starter, Kohl Drake, does not have available stats, adding uncertainty to their matchup against the Athletics.

Messick vs. Rojas pitching duel

Both starters have ERAs under 2.80 and strong strikeout numbers over 19+ innings.

Heavy Over public on Guardians-Twins

Over has 86% of tickets and 87% of money, showing strong market lean despite quality pitching.

Diamondbacks' injury cloud

Carroll out day-to-day; multiple key players on 60-day IL impacting pitching depth.

Number of the day90% โ€” Public Over tickets and money on Orioles-Red Sox total

Sources: MLB StatsAPI (schedule, probables, season lines), ESPN (injuries, news), our model picks & market data. Written only from these facts โ€” nothing free-recalled.

๐Ÿ’ฌ Discuss today's slate in Discord

From the playbookPublic Money vs. Sharp Money5 min

Victor Caratini
Pick of the DayA+6:40 PM

Victor Caratini

Hits Over 0.50 vs Guardians

90%L10
+55.20%EV
-138
NYM@MIL
Game Pick of the Day

MIL -1.5

Run Line ยท NYM @ MIL ยท 7:41 PM

+11424% edge

Parlay of the Day

3 Legs

+347

$10 wins $44.66

1

Josh Naylor

Hits+Runs+RBIs O0.5

100%-235
2

Seiya Suzuki

Hits+Runs+RBIs O1.5

90%-115
3

Griffin Conine

Hits O0.5

90%-148

100% Club

Perfect L5 hit rate

View All
Michael Busch

Michael Busch

RBIs O0.5

100%+226
Ian Happ

Ian Happ

Walks O0.5

100%+159
Seiya Suzuki

Seiya Suzuki

Hits+Runs+RBIs O1.5

100%-115
Braden Montgomery

Braden Montgomery

Total Bases O1.5

100%+154

Hot Streaks

Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

10 straight
Gabriel Moreno

Gabriel Moreno

Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

10 straight
Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo

Over 3.5 Strikeouts

10 straight
Kumar Rocker

Kumar Rocker

Over 2.5 Strikeouts

10 straight

Upcoming Games

All Matchups
Seiya Suzuki
Seiya SuzukiA+
Hits+Runs+RBIs O1.590%+67% EV
-115DK
Jack Perkins
Jack PerkinsA+
Earned Runs O2.586%+70% EV
-102DK
Josh Naylor
Josh NaylorA
Hits+Runs+RBIs O0.5100%+42% EV
-235DK
Griffin Conine
Griffin ConineA+
Hits O0.590%+55% EV
-148DK
Gabriel Moreno
Gabriel MorenoA+
Singles O0.590%+54% EV
-139DK
Gleyber Torres
Gleyber TorresA+
Hits+Runs+RBIs O2.560%+99% EV
+232DK
Kumar Rocker
Kumar RockerA+
Hits Allowed O4.586%+56% EV
-123DK
Ian Happ
Ian HappA+
Walks O0.570%+81% EV
+159DK
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