NFL · CHI

36%Bears' chance to win tonight

The line swung from Bears -1.5 to +4.5 right after Caleb Williams went down; it's +3.5 now (no-vig moneyline: 36%). Home underdogs of exactly 3.5 since 1999 won 38% of the time (266 games) — the market isn't overreacting to Keenum.

Post on XSave image
The betting market gives the Bears a 36% chance tonight — down from 52% when this game's line opened in July. History says home dogs of 3.5 win 38%. About right.

Computed from game logs · first seen 2026-09-28

More NFL stats