How NBA picks work
What goes into a pick, what does not, and how we hold ourselves to it.
Every prop, every 15 minutes
We collect the full DraftKings NBA player-prop board — both sides of every line and each rung of the milestone ladders — alongside the same markets at Pinnacle and BetRivers, and box scores from stats.nba.com.
A pick is a price, not a streak
Pinnacle takes the sharpest action in the market, so its line with the bookmaker margin removed is the best available estimate of the true probability. A pick is a DraftKings price that beats that estimate by at least 1%, between −250 and +300, on a regular-season game. Hit rates, matchup ranks and minutes are shown for context; they do not pick anything, because last season they did not add anything the price had not already accounted for.
Published once, never edited
A pick is written to the ledger the first time it qualifies and is never updated or removed, even if the line moves against it afterwards. Results are graded against the box score from that game, at the price we published.
Judged on closing line value
Win-loss records swing on luck for hundreds of bets. Beating the final pre-tip price is the faster, harder test of whether a price edge is real, so every pick's CLV is published — including the ones that lose.
None of this guarantees a profit. A price edge that is real still loses often, and one that is not real will show up as zero on the Closing Line Report and the Results page.