Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET
Arkansas State at Southern Miss
Arkansas State favored by 6.5 · total 62.5
Arkansas StateRed Wolves
Away · Sun Belt
-6.5
-110
-245
ML
Southern MissGolden Eagles
Home · Sun Belt
+6.5
-110
+200
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Arkansas State | Southern Miss | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30% | 90% |
| Passing | 7% | 97% |
| Rushing | -246%* | 102%* |
| Receiving | 54% | 82% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
Player props · 23 players
Anytime TD
+17 more anytime td ladders
Every rung and price on the full prop board. We publish no model on college props — these are the market's numbers.
The read
- Forecast winds around 17 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- At 6.5 the line sits just short of 7, so the games decided by exactly 7 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
- The spread has moved from 7 to 6.5 since it opened, toward the home side.
- A total of 62.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Arkansas State
13-10 ATS · 13-10 SU
10-13 O/U · 5-6 away
Southern Miss
7-15-1 ATS · 6-17 SU
10-13 O/U · 5-6 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 6.5 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 62.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Southern Miss +3.6 versus the market's +6.5 — a 2.9-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
7 → 6.5-0.5
Total
61.5 → 62.5+1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.