Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET
North Carolina at Duke
Duke favored by 3 · total 46.5
North CarolinaTar Heels
Away · ACC
+3
-110
+130
ML
DukeBlue Devils
Home · ACC
-3
-110
-155
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| North Carolina | Duke | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28% | 17% |
| Passing | 10% | 4% |
| Rushing | 54% | 43% |
| Receiving | 33% | 20% |
Player props · 24 players
Passing yards
Rushing yards
Receiving yards
+2 more receiving yards ladders
Anytime TD
+17 more anytime td ladders
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Every rung and price on the full prop board. We publish no model on college props — these are the market's numbers.
The read
- Forecast winds around 17 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- 70% chance of rain at kickoff.
- The number sits exactly on 3, one of the margins college games land on most often — so a half-point move either way changes more results here than the same move anywhere else on the board.
- The spread has moved from -3.5 to -3 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 46.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
North Carolina
7-15-1 ATS · 8-15 SU
10-13 O/U · 5-5 away
Duke
14-8-2 ATS · 16-8 SU
14-10 O/U · 6-3 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 3 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 46.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Duke -4 versus the market's -3 — a 1.0-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-3.5 → -3+0.5
Total
47.5 → 46.5-1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.