Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET
Northwestern at Michigan State
Northwestern favored by 7 · total 49.5
NorthwesternWildcats
Away · Big Ten
-7
-115
-298
ML
Michigan StateSpartans
Home · Big Ten
+7
-105
+240
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Northwestern | Michigan State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 89% | 21% |
| Passing | 94% | 16% |
| Rushing | 88% | 19% |
| Receiving | 86% | 24% |
Player props · 23 players
Passing yards
Rushing yards
Receiving yards
Anytime TD
+15 more anytime td ladders
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Every rung and price on the full prop board. We publish no model on college props — these are the market's numbers.
The read
- Forecast winds around 14 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- The number sits exactly on 7, one of the margins college games land on most often — so a half-point move either way changes more results here than the same move anywhere else on the board.
- The spread has moved from 8.5 to 7 since it opened, toward the home side.
- A total of 49.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 7.6 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Northwestern
10-11-2 ATS · 9-14 SU
12-11 O/U · 3-5-2 away
Michigan State
11-10 ATS · 7-14 SU
11-10 O/U · 2-8 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 7 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,074 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 51.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (48.2–54.2%) is taken into account.
- Total 49.5 — this game's spread sits in the 7-14 point band. In 1,954 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 48.6% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Michigan State -0.6 versus the market's +7 — a 7.6-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
8.5 → 7-1.5
Total
48.5 → 49.5+1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.