Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET
TCU at Baylor
Baylor favored by 5.5 · total 49.5
TCUHorned Frogs
Away · Big 12
+5.5
-110
+180
ML
BaylorBears
Home · Big 12
-5.5
-110
-218
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| TCU | Baylor | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22% | 60% |
| Passing | 11% | 78% |
| Rushing | 31% | 68% |
| Receiving | 29% | 47% |
Player props · 26 players
Passing yards
Receiving yards
+1 more receiving yards ladders
Rushing yards
Anytime TD
+18 more anytime td ladders
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Every rung and price on the full prop board. We publish no model on college props — these are the market's numbers.
The read
- Forecast winds around 16 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- The spread has moved from -6.5 to -5.5 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 49.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 6.7 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
TCU
13-11-1 ATS · 17-8 SU
13-11-1 O/U · 4-6-1 away
Baylor
9-14 ATS · 11-12 SU
13-9-1 O/U · 5-7 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 5.5 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 49.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Baylor +1.2 versus the market's -5.5 — a 6.7-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-6.5 → -5.5+1.0
Total
49.5 → 49.5unmoved
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.