Sat, Oct 17 · 1:00 PM ET
UMass at Buffalo
Buffalo favored by 7 · total 42.5
UMassMinutemen
Away · Mid-American
+7
-102
+230
ML
BuffaloBulls
Home · Mid-American
-7
-118
-285
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Massachusetts | Buffalo | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | -57%* | -1%* |
| Passing | -37%* | 9% |
| Rushing | 221%* | 9% |
| Receiving | -11%* | -7%* |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
Player props · 22 players
Anytime TD
+16 more anytime td ladders
Every rung and price on the full prop board. We publish no model on college props — these are the market's numbers.
The read
- The number sits exactly on 7, one of the margins college games land on most often — so a half-point move either way changes more results here than the same move anywhere else on the board.
- The spread has moved from -3.5 to -7 since it opened, toward the home side.
- A total of 42.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 9.3 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Massachusetts
9-13-1 ATS · 2-21 SU
15-8 O/U · 5-6-1 away
Buffalo
10-12-1 ATS · 12-11 SU
13-9-1 O/U · 4-6-1 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 7 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,074 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 51.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (48.2–54.2%) is taken into account.
- Total 42.5 — this game's spread sits in the 7-14 point band. In 1,954 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 48.6% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Buffalo -16.3 versus the market's -7 — a 9.3-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-3.5 → -7-3.5
Total
42.5 → 42.5unmoved
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.