Dinger Hub

Who's going yard today?

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

HR props

Avg score

Strong 70+

Best park

LAD0.97

Last Dinger of the Day William Contreras Over 0.5 — hit 1 HR: CASHED ✅

All-time headline pick: 10-51

Dinger of the Day

Patrick Bailey

CLE - Batter

Over 0.5 HR(+920)

PF 0.93+206.0% model EV

•Tropicana Field (PF 0.93) -- suppresses home runs
•Averaging 0.4 HR/G over last 10 -- locked in
•Positive expected value (+206.0% model EV)

at Tropicana Field

35Average

Bet on DraftKings

How the Dinger Score works

A 0-100 blend of the things that actually precede a home run, all from our own data: recent HR rate and per-game average (his last 10 and 20 games), park factor for tonight's stadium, the opposing starter's HR/9 (20+ IP required before it counts), weather (heat and wind blowing out), and model EV against the posted price. 70+ is a strong spot; it is a ranking of situation quality, not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether the price is worth it — that's what the EV number is for.

All HR Props

38 of 38

SortPriceGame

Patrick Bailey

CLE · Batter · @ TB

6:00 PM ET

35Average

Over 0.5 HR(+920)

3/10L10 rate 30%Park 0.93EV +206.0%

at Tropicana Field

•Tropicana Field (PF 0.93) -- suppresses home runs
•Averaging 0.4 HR/G over last 10 -- locked in
•Positive expected value (+206.0% model EV)

Jonny DeLuca

TB · Batter · @ CLE

6:00 PM ET

30Average

Over 1.5 HR(+1000)

1/10L10 rate 10%Park 0.98EV +910.0%

at Progressive Field

•0.2 HR/G over last 10 games
•Positive expected value (+910.0% model EV)

Patrick Bailey

CLE · Batter · @ TB

6:00 PM ET

30Average

Over 1.5 HR(+1000)

3/10L10 rate 10%Park 0.93EV +910.0%

at Tropicana Field

•Tropicana Field (PF 0.93) -- suppresses home runs
•Averaging 0.4 HR/G over last 10 -- locked in
•Positive expected value (+910.0% model EV)

Cedric Mullins

TB · Batter · @ CLE

6:00 PM ET

30Average

Over 0.5 HR(+760)

2/10L10 rate 20%Park 0.98EV +72.0%

at Progressive Field

•0.2 HR/G over last 10 games
•Positive expected value (+72.0% model EV)

Jonny DeLuca

TB · Batter · @ CLE

6:00 PM ET

30Average

Over 0.5 HR(+960)

1/10L10 rate 10%Park 0.98EV +6.0%

at Progressive Field

•0.2 HR/G over last 10 games
•Positive expected value (+6.0% model EV)

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · Batter · @ TB

6:00 PM ET

20Weak

Over 1.5 HR(+1000)

1/10L10 rate 10%Park 0.93EV +910.0%

at Tropicana Field

•Tropicana Field (PF 0.93) -- suppresses home runs
•0.2 HR/G over last 10 games
•Positive expected value (+910.0% model EV)

Chase DeLauter

CLE · Batter · @ TB

6:00 PM ET

20Weak

Over 0.5 HR(+585)

2/10L10 rate 20%Park 0.93EV +37.0%

at Tropicana Field

•Tropicana Field (PF 0.93) -- suppresses home runs
•0.2 HR/G over last 10 games
•Positive expected value (+37.0% model EV)

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · Batter · @ TB

6:00 PM ET

20Weak

Over 0.5 HR(+1080)

1/10L10 rate 10%Park 0.93EV +18.0%

at Tropicana Field

•Tropicana Field (PF 0.93) -- suppresses home runs
•0.2 HR/G over last 10 games
•Positive expected value (+18.0% model EV)

Cedric Mullins

TB · Batter · @ CLE

6:00 PM ET

20Weak

Over 1.5 HR(+9100)

2/10L10 rate 0%Park 0.98EV 0.0%

at Progressive Field

•0.2 HR/G over last 10 games

Chase DeLauter

CLE · Batter · @ TB

6:00 PM ET

10Weak

Over 1.5 HR(+6600)

2/10L10 rate 0%Park 0.93EV 0.0%

at Tropicana Field

•Tropicana Field (PF 0.93) -- suppresses home runs
•0.2 HR/G over last 10 games

Jonathan Aranda

TB · Batter · @ CLE

6:00 PM ET

10Weak

Over 1.5 HR(+9000)

1/10L10 rate 0%Park 0.98EV 0.0%

at Progressive Field

•0.1 HR/G over last 10 games

Junior Caminero

TB · Batter · @ CLE

6:00 PM ET

10Weak

Over 1.5 HR(+4300)

1/10L10 rate 0%Park 0.98EV 0.0%

at Progressive Field

•0.1 HR/G over last 10 games

Showing 12 of 38

Park Factor Leaderboard

Stadium	Park Factor	Label	Weather	Wind
Dodger Stadium(LAD)	0.97	Slightly pitcher-friendly	71F	5 mph W