Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMLB Analytics

First Inning Run Predictions

14 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

0
Strong NRFI
2
Lean NRFI
8
Toss-up
4
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
PITPITatPHIPHI
O/U 8.5
6:42 PM
Citizens Bank ParkPF 1.0680°FPIT NRFI 64%PHI NRFI 64%
Paul Skenes
AwayPaul Skenes
ERA
3.10
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.97
K/9
11.0
Zack Wheeler
HomeZack Wheeler
ERA
2.03
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.86
K/9
8.8
64
Lean NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Paul Skenes 3.10, Zack Wheeler 2.03) — strong NRFI
  • PIT batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
WSHWSHatBOSBOS
O/U 5.5
7:12 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0876°FWSH NRFI 70%BOS NRFI 68%
Andrew Alvarez
AwayAndrew Alvarez
ERA
3.44
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.47
K/9
10.3
Payton Tolle
HomePayton Tolle
ERA
2.78
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.02
K/9
8.7
64
Lean NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Andrew Alvarez 3.44, Payton Tolle 2.78) — strong NRFI
  • WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Low game total (5.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • WSH batting lineup scores 5.2 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.08) favors YRFI
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
STLSTLatATLATL
O/U 8.5
7:16 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.0188°FSTL NRFI 69%ATL NRFI 68%
Michael McGreevy
AwayMichael McGreevy
ERA
3.12
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.14
K/9
5.7
Reynaldo López
HomeReynaldo López
ERA
3.47
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
7.7
54
Toss-up
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
DETDETatNYYNYY
O/U 13.5
7:11 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0782°FDET NRFI 64%NYY NRFI 76%
Troy Melton
AwayTroy Melton
ERA
2.39
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.85
K/9
6.0
Will Warren
HomeWill Warren
ERA
3.75
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
9.0
53
Toss-up
  • Troy Melton has elite ERA (2.39) — strong NRFI signal
  • NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (29/38)
  • High game total (13.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
CINCINatMILMIL
O/U 10.5
7:39 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable88°F12mphCIN NRFI 76%MIL NRFI 62%
Andrew Abbott
AwayAndrew Abbott
ERA
3.90
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.41
K/9
7.0
Shane Drohan
HomeShane Drohan
ERA
3.12
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.23
K/9
9.0
50
Toss-up
  • CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (28/37)
  • MIL batting lineup scores 5.2 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • High game total (10.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
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MINMINatHOUHOU
O/U 8.5
8:10 PM
Minute Maid ParkPF 1.02Retractable85°F8mphMIN NRFI 57%HOU NRFI 68%
Taj Bradley
AwayTaj Bradley
ERA
3.98
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.28
K/9
9.8
Tatsuya Imai
HomeTatsuya Imai
ERA
5.36
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.32
K/9
11.1
42
Toss-up
  • Tatsuya Imai ERA 5.36 — elevated run risk
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SDSDatCHCCHC
O/U 16.5
8:05 PM
Wrigley FieldPF 1.0587°F12mphSD NRFI 74%CHC NRFI 80%
Walker Buehler
AwayWalker Buehler
ERA
3.81
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.31
K/9
8.1
Colin Rea
HomeColin Rea
ERA
4.80
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.41
K/9
6.7
41
Toss-up
  • Colin Rea ERA 4.80 — elevated run risk
  • High game total (16.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
  • SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (28/38)
  • CHC batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (31/39)
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
TBTBatKCKC
O/U 14.5
7:40 PM
Kauffman StadiumPF 0.9789°F12mphTB NRFI 54%KC NRFI 59%
Shane McClanahan
AwayShane McClanahan
ERA
3.30
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.22
K/9
8.9
Seth Lugo
HomeSeth Lugo
ERA
4.18
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
6.9
38
Lean YRFI
  • High game total (14.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
MIAMIAatCOLCOL
O/U 12.5
8:42 PM
Coors FieldPF 1.2785°F11mphMIA NRFI 72%COL NRFI 72%
Max Meyer
AwayMax Meyer
ERA
2.60
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.11
K/9
9.9
Kyle Freeland
HomeKyle Freeland
ERA
7.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.61
K/9
7.6
33
Lean YRFI
  • Kyle Freeland ERA 7.50 — elevated run risk
  • Kyle Freeland high WHIP (1.61) means more baserunners
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.27) favors YRFI
  • High game total (12.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
  • Hitter-friendly weather: Clear, 85°F, 11mph wind — offense boost
  • Max Meyer has elite ERA (2.60) — strong NRFI signal
  • MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
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SFSFatARIARI
O/U 9
9:40 PM
Chase FieldPF 1.05Retractable97°F10mphSF NRFI 72%ARI NRFI 73%
Trevor McDonald
AwayTrevor McDonald
ERA
4.94
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.35
K/9
7.9
Zac Gallen
HomeZac Gallen
ERA
6.15
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.58
K/9
5.4
31
Lean YRFI
  • Trevor McDonald ERA 4.94 — elevated run risk
  • Zac Gallen ERA 6.15 — elevated run risk
  • Zac Gallen high WHIP (1.58) means more baserunners
  • Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
  • SF batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
  • ARI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
NRFI-115
YRFI-115
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NYMNYMatTORTOR
O/U 3.5
7:07 PM
Rogers CentrePF 1.03Retractable79°F9mphNYM NRFI 73%TOR NRFI 78%
Freddy Peralta
AwayFreddy Peralta
ERA
4.53
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
8.7
TBD
HomeTBD
59.1
Toss-up
  • NYM batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • TOR batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (31/40)
  • Low game total (3.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • Freddy Peralta ERA 4.53 — elevated run risk
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LAALAAatSEASEA
O/U 7
9:40 PM
T-Mobile ParkPF 0.95Retractable63°FLAA NRFI 65%SEA NRFI 69%
TBD
AwayTBD
TBD
HomeTBD
54.5
Toss-up
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
NRFI-150
YRFI+115
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LADLADatOAKOAK
O/U 11
9:40 PM
Oakland ColiseumPF 0.9266°F12mphLAD NRFI 67%OAK NRFI 65%
TBD
AwayTBD
J.T. Ginn
HomeJ.T. Ginn
ERA
3.15
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.22
K/9
7.9
50.7
Toss-up
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
  • Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • LAD batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • High game total (11) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
NRFI+125
YRFI-165
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CHWCHWatBALBAL
O/U 13.5
6:36 PM
Camden YardsPF 1.0482°FCHW NRFI 71%BAL NRFI 68%
Noah Schultz
AwayNoah Schultz
ERA
5.82
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
7.7
TBD
HomeTBD
36
Lean YRFI
  • Noah Schultz ERA 5.82 — elevated run risk
  • High game total (13.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • CHW batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (27/38)
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