First Inning Run Predictions
15 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run
Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather
0
Strong NRFI
5
Lean NRFI
6
Toss-up
4
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
PITat
PHIO/U 5.5
6:42 PM
Citizens Bank ParkPF 1.0684°FPIT NRFI 64%PHI NRFI 64%
AwayPaul Skenes
ERA
3.16
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.98
K/9
11.0
HomeZack Wheeler
ERA
2.04
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.87
K/9
8.8
73
Lean NRFI- Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Paul Skenes 3.16, Zack Wheeler 2.04) — strong NRFI
- Low game total (5.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
TEXat
CLEO/U 6.5
6:41 PM
Progressive FieldPF 0.9892°F9mphTEX NRFI 63%CLE NRFI 82%
AwayMacKenzie Gore
ERA
4.05
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.25
K/9
9.6
HomeJoey Cantillo
ERA
3.92
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
9.0
69
Lean NRFI- CLE batters held scoreless in 1st inning 82% of games (31/38)
- Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
WSHat
BOSO/U 6.5
7:12 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0877°F10mphWSH NRFI 70%BOS NRFI 68%
AwayAndrew Alvarez
ERA
3.18
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.35
K/9
10.3
HomePayton Tolle
ERA
2.98
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.06
K/9
8.9
65
Lean NRFI- Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Andrew Alvarez 3.18, Payton Tolle 2.98) — strong NRFI
- WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
- Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
- WSH batting lineup scores 5.2 R/G — high 1st inning threat
- Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.08) favors YRFI
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
DETat
NYYO/U 12.5
7:11 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0785°FDET NRFI 64%NYY NRFI 76%
AwayTroy Melton
ERA
2.21
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.82
K/9
6.1
HomeWill Warren
ERA
3.52
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
9.5
60
Lean NRFI- Troy Melton has elite ERA (2.21) — strong NRFI signal
- NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (29/38)
- High game total (12.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
STLat
ATLO/U 6.5
7:16 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.0192°FSTL NRFI 69%ATL NRFI 68%
AwayMichael McGreevy
ERA
3.35
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.15
K/9
5.7
HomeReynaldo López
ERA
3.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
7.8
56
Toss-up- Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
CINat
MILO/U 8.5
7:39 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable91°F15mphCIN NRFI 76%MIL NRFI 62%
AwayAndrew Abbott
ERA
3.81
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.42
K/9
6.9
HomeShane Drohan
ERA
3.12
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.23
K/9
9.0
55
Toss-up- CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (28/37)
- MIL batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+105
YRFI-140
TBat
KCO/U 8.5
7:40 PM
Kauffman StadiumPF 0.9792°F13mphTB NRFI 54%KC NRFI 59%
AwayShane McClanahan
ERA
3.30
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.22
K/9
8.9
HomeSeth Lugo
ERA
4.18
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
6.9
45
Toss-upNRFI+110
YRFI-145
MINat
HOUO/U 8.5
8:15 PM
Minute Maid ParkPF 1.02Retractable88°F10mphMIN NRFI 57%HOU NRFI 68%
AwayTaj Bradley
ERA
4.00
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.31
K/9
9.8
HomeTatsuya Imai
ERA
5.56
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.35
K/9
10.9
42
Toss-up- Tatsuya Imai ERA 5.56 — elevated run risk
NRFI-120
YRFI-110
SDat
CHCO/U 11.5
8:05 PM
Wrigley FieldPF 1.0590°F15mphSD NRFI 74%CHC NRFI 80%
AwayWalker Buehler
ERA
3.96
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.32
K/9
8.1
HomeColin Rea
ERA
4.99
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.40
K/9
6.7
38
Lean YRFI- Colin Rea ERA 4.99 — elevated run risk
- High game total (11.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
- Hitter-friendly weather: Thunderstorm, 90°F, 15mph wind — offense boost
- SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (28/38)
- CHC batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (31/39)
NRFI+135
YRFI-175
MIAat
COLO/U 11
8:40 PM
Coors FieldPF 1.2788°FMIA NRFI 72%COL NRFI 72%
AwayMax Meyer
ERA
2.80
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.16
K/9
10.2
HomeKyle Freeland
ERA
7.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.61
K/9
7.6
30
Lean YRFI- Kyle Freeland ERA 7.50 — elevated run risk
- Kyle Freeland high WHIP (1.61) means more baserunners
- Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.27) favors YRFI
- High game total (11) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
- Hitter-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 88°F, 6mph wind — offense boost
NRFI+135
YRFI-180
SFat
ARIO/U 9
9:40 PM
Chase FieldPF 1.05Retractable99°F9mphSF NRFI 72%ARI NRFI 73%
AwayTrevor McDonald
ERA
4.99
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.38
K/9
8.1
HomeZac Gallen
ERA
6.04
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.56
K/9
5.5
27
Lean YRFI- Trevor McDonald ERA 4.99 — elevated run risk
- Zac Gallen ERA 6.04 — elevated run risk
- Zac Gallen high WHIP (1.56) means more baserunners
- Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
NRFI-115
YRFI-115
NYMat
TORO/U 4.5
7:07 PM
Rogers CentrePF 1.03Retractable83°F9mphNYM NRFI 73%TOR NRFI 78%
AwayFreddy Peralta
ERA
4.67
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.35
K/9
8.8
HomeTBD
61.9
Lean NRFI- NYM batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
- TOR batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (31/40)
- Low game total (4.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
- Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
- Freddy Peralta ERA 4.67 — elevated run risk
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
LAAat
SEAO/U 7
9:40 PM
T-Mobile ParkPF 0.95Retractable62°FLAA NRFI 65%SEA NRFI 69%
AwayTBD
HomeTBD
54.5
Toss-up- Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
- Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
- Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
NRFI-150
YRFI+115
LADat
OAKO/U 11
9:40 PM
Oakland ColiseumPF 0.9269°F12mphLAD NRFI 67%OAK NRFI 65%
AwayTBD
HomeJ.T. Ginn
ERA
3.05
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.20
K/9
8.0
50.7
Toss-up- Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
- Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
- LAD batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
- High game total (11) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
NRFI+125
YRFI-165
CHWat
BALO/U 15.5
6:36 PM
Camden YardsPF 1.0487°F8mphCHW NRFI 71%BAL NRFI 68%
AwayNoah Schultz
ERA
5.82
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
7.7
HomeTBD
35
Lean YRFI- Noah Schultz ERA 5.82 — elevated run risk
- High game total (15.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
- Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
- CHW batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (27/38)
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings