First Inning Run Predictions
14 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run
Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather
0
Strong NRFI
2
Lean NRFI
8
Toss-up
4
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
O/U 8.5
6:42 PM
Citizens Bank ParkPF 1.0680°FPIT NRFI 64%PHI NRFI 64%

AwayPaul Skenes
ERA
3.10
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.97
K/9
11.0

HomeZack Wheeler
ERA
2.03
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.86
K/9
8.8
64
Lean NRFI- Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Paul Skenes 3.10, Zack Wheeler 2.03) — strong NRFI
- PIT batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
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O/U 5.5
7:12 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0876°FWSH NRFI 70%BOS NRFI 68%

AwayAndrew Alvarez
ERA
3.44
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.47
K/9
10.3

HomePayton Tolle
ERA
2.78
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.02
K/9
8.7
64
Lean NRFI- Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Andrew Alvarez 3.44, Payton Tolle 2.78) — strong NRFI
- WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
- Low game total (5.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
- WSH batting lineup scores 5.2 R/G — high 1st inning threat
- Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.08) favors YRFI
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O/U 8.5
7:16 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.0188°FSTL NRFI 69%ATL NRFI 68%

AwayMichael McGreevy
ERA
3.12
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.14
K/9
5.7

HomeReynaldo López
ERA
3.47
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
7.7
54
Toss-upOdds not yet availableView on DraftKings
O/U 13.5
7:11 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0782°FDET NRFI 64%NYY NRFI 76%

AwayTroy Melton
ERA
2.39
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.85
K/9
6.0

HomeWill Warren
ERA
3.75
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
9.0
53
Toss-up- Troy Melton has elite ERA (2.39) — strong NRFI signal
- NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (29/38)
- High game total (13.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
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O/U 10.5
7:39 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable88°F12mphCIN NRFI 76%MIL NRFI 62%

AwayAndrew Abbott
ERA
3.90
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.41
K/9
7.0

HomeShane Drohan
ERA
3.12
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.23
K/9
9.0
50
Toss-up- CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (28/37)
- MIL batting lineup scores 5.2 R/G — high 1st inning threat
- High game total (10.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
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O/U 8.5
8:10 PM
Minute Maid ParkPF 1.02Retractable85°F8mphMIN NRFI 57%HOU NRFI 68%

AwayTaj Bradley
ERA
3.98
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.28
K/9
9.8

HomeTatsuya Imai
ERA
5.36
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.32
K/9
11.1
42
Toss-up- Tatsuya Imai ERA 5.36 — elevated run risk
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O/U 16.5
8:05 PM
Wrigley FieldPF 1.0587°F12mphSD NRFI 74%CHC NRFI 80%

AwayWalker Buehler
ERA
3.81
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.31
K/9
8.1

HomeColin Rea
ERA
4.80
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.41
K/9
6.7
41
Toss-up- Colin Rea ERA 4.80 — elevated run risk
- High game total (16.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
- SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (28/38)
- CHC batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (31/39)
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O/U 14.5
7:40 PM
Kauffman StadiumPF 0.9789°F12mphTB NRFI 54%KC NRFI 59%

AwayShane McClanahan
ERA
3.30
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.22
K/9
8.9

HomeSeth Lugo
ERA
4.18
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
6.9
38
Lean YRFI- High game total (14.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
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O/U 12.5
8:42 PM
Coors FieldPF 1.2785°F11mphMIA NRFI 72%COL NRFI 72%

AwayMax Meyer
ERA
2.60
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.11
K/9
9.9

HomeKyle Freeland
ERA
7.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.61
K/9
7.6
33
Lean YRFI- Kyle Freeland ERA 7.50 — elevated run risk
- Kyle Freeland high WHIP (1.61) means more baserunners
- Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.27) favors YRFI
- High game total (12.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
- Hitter-friendly weather: Clear, 85°F, 11mph wind — offense boost
- Max Meyer has elite ERA (2.60) — strong NRFI signal
- MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
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O/U 9
9:40 PM
Chase FieldPF 1.05Retractable97°F10mphSF NRFI 72%ARI NRFI 73%

AwayTrevor McDonald
ERA
4.94
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.35
K/9
7.9

HomeZac Gallen
ERA
6.15
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.58
K/9
5.4
31
Lean YRFI- Trevor McDonald ERA 4.94 — elevated run risk
- Zac Gallen ERA 6.15 — elevated run risk
- Zac Gallen high WHIP (1.58) means more baserunners
- Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
- SF batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
- ARI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
NRFI-115
YRFI-115
O/U 3.5
7:07 PM
Rogers CentrePF 1.03Retractable79°F9mphNYM NRFI 73%TOR NRFI 78%

AwayFreddy Peralta
ERA
4.53
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
8.7

HomeTBD
59.1
Toss-up- NYM batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
- TOR batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (31/40)
- Low game total (3.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
- Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
- Freddy Peralta ERA 4.53 — elevated run risk
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O/U 7
9:40 PM
T-Mobile ParkPF 0.95Retractable63°FLAA NRFI 65%SEA NRFI 69%

AwayTBD

HomeTBD
54.5
Toss-up- Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
- Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
- Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
NRFI-150
YRFI+115
O/U 11
9:40 PM
Oakland ColiseumPF 0.9266°F12mphLAD NRFI 67%OAK NRFI 65%

AwayTBD

HomeJ.T. Ginn
ERA
3.15
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.22
K/9
7.9
50.7
Toss-up- Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
- Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
- LAD batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
- High game total (11) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
NRFI+125
YRFI-165
O/U 13.5
6:36 PM
Camden YardsPF 1.0482°FCHW NRFI 71%BAL NRFI 68%

AwayNoah Schultz
ERA
5.82
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
7.7

HomeTBD
36
Lean YRFI- Noah Schultz ERA 5.82 — elevated run risk
- High game total (13.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
- Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
- CHW batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (27/38)
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