Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMLB Analytics

First Inning Run Predictions

11 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

3
Strong NRFI
2
Lean NRFI
5
Toss-up
0
Lean YRFI
1
Strong YRFI
CHCCHCatATLATL
O/U 7.5
7:15 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.0172°F13mphCHC NRFI 83%ATL NRFI 68%
Ben Brown
AwayBen Brown
ERA
1.82
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.91
K/9
8.2
Chris Sale
HomeChris Sale
ERA
2.20
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.88
K/9
10.3
83
Strong NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Ben Brown 1.82, Chris Sale 2.20) — strong NRFI
  • CHC batters held scoreless in 1st inning 83% of games (33/40)
NRFI-150
YRFI+115
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DETDETatNYMNYM
O/U 9.5
1:10 PM
Citi FieldPF 0.9562°FDET NRFI 74%NYM NRFI 72%
Keider Montero
AwayKeider Montero
ERA
3.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.98
K/9
6.2
Nolan McLean
HomeNolan McLean
ERA
3.06
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.98
K/9
10.8
80
Strong NRFI
  • DET batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (29/39)
  • NYM batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
SFSFatLADLAD
O/U 8
10:10 PM
Dodger StadiumPF 0.9767°FSF NRFI 80%LAD NRFI 70%
Landen Roupp
AwayLanden Roupp
ERA
3.09
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
10.5
Emmet Sheehan
HomeEmmet Sheehan
ERA
4.79
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.35
K/9
10.8
75
Strong NRFI
  • SF batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (32/40)
  • LAD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
NRFI-150
YRFI+115
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COLCOLatPITPIT
O/U 10.5
12:36 PM
PNC ParkPF 0.9649°F10mphCOL NRFI 70%PIT NRFI 60%
Chase Dollander
AwayChase Dollander
ERA
3.89
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.30
K/9
9.6
Mason Montgomery
HomeMason Montgomery
ERA
2.70
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.26
K/9
14.0
69
Lean NRFI
  • Mason Montgomery has elite ERA (2.70) — strong NRFI signal
  • COL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 49°F — suppresses offense
  • High game total (10.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
PHIPHIatBOSBOS
O/U 7
6:45 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0855°F10mphPHI NRFI 68%BOS NRFI 85%
Jesús Luzardo
AwayJesús Luzardo
ERA
5.77
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.40
K/9
11.8
Ranger Suarez
HomeRanger Suarez
ERA
2.77
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.95
K/9
7.4
66
Lean NRFI
  • Ranger Suarez has elite ERA (2.77) — strong NRFI signal
  • BOS batters held scoreless in 1st inning 85% of games (33/39)
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • Jesús Luzardo ERA 5.77 — elevated run risk
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.08) favors YRFI
NRFI-165
YRFI+125
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STLSTLatOAKOAK
O/U 10
3:05 PM
Oakland ColiseumPF 0.9269°FSTL NRFI 71%OAK NRFI 74%
Michael McGreevy
AwayMichael McGreevy
ERA
2.18
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.86
K/9
6.5
Jacob Lopez
HomeJacob Lopez
ERA
6.11
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.75
K/9
7.1
56
Toss-up
  • Michael McGreevy has elite ERA (2.18) — strong NRFI signal
  • STL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (27/38)
  • OAK batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (29/39)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
  • Jacob Lopez ERA 6.11 — elevated run risk
  • Jacob Lopez high WHIP (1.75) means more baserunners
  • High game total (10) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
NRFI+110
YRFI-145
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SDSDatMILMIL
O/U 11.5
1:40 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable61°F10mphSD NRFI 85%MIL NRFI 78%
Griffin Canning
AwayGriffin Canning
ERA
8.71
1st Inn
—
WHIP
2.03
K/9
12.2
Kyle Harrison
HomeKyle Harrison
ERA
2.27
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.23
K/9
11.1
53
Toss-up
  • Kyle Harrison has elite ERA (2.27) — strong NRFI signal
  • SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 85% of games (33/39)
  • MIL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (29/37)
  • Griffin Canning ERA 8.71 — elevated run risk
  • Griffin Canning high WHIP (2.03) means more baserunners
  • High game total (11.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
KCKCatCHWCHW
O/U 8
7:40 PM
Guaranteed Rate FieldPF 1.0460°F8mphKC NRFI 80%CHW NRFI 72%
Kris Bubic
AwayKris Bubic
ERA
3.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.17
K/9
9.1
Anthony Kay
HomeAnthony Kay
ERA
4.89
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.57
K/9
6.4
51
Toss-up
  • KC batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (32/40)
  • CHW batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
  • Anthony Kay ERA 4.89 — elevated run risk
  • Anthony Kay high WHIP (1.57) means more baserunners
NRFI-125
YRFI-105
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WSHWSHatCINCIN
O/U 10.5
12:41 PM
Great American Ball ParkPF 1.0963°F8mphWSH NRFI 60%CIN NRFI 70%
Foster Griffin
AwayFoster Griffin
ERA
3.53
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.14
K/9
8.7
Chase Burns
HomeChase Burns
ERA
1.87
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.00
K/9
9.3
50
Toss-up
  • Chase Burns has elite ERA (1.87) — strong NRFI signal
  • CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • WSH batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.09) favors YRFI
  • High game total (10.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
MIAMIAatMINMIN
O/U 11.5
1:41 PM
Target FieldPF 1.0177°F17mphMIA NRFI 60%MIN NRFI 70%
Braxton Garrett
AwayBraxton Garrett
ERA
13.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
5.25
K/9
20.3
Zebby Matthews
HomeZebby Matthews
ERA
0.00
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.00
K/9
9.0
42
Toss-up
  • High game total (11.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
  • Braxton Garrett — limited innings pitched, ERA unreliable
  • Zebby Matthews — limited innings pitched, ERA unreliable
  • MIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
SEASEAatHOUHOU
O/U 10.5
2:10 PM
Minute Maid ParkPF 1.02Retractable86°FSEA NRFI 63%HOU NRFI 60%
Luis Castillo
AwayLuis Castillo
ERA
6.57
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.62
K/9
8.7
Mike Burrows
HomeMike Burrows
ERA
4.96
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.50
K/9
8.5
21
Strong YRFI
  • Luis Castillo ERA 6.57 — elevated run risk
  • Mike Burrows ERA 4.96 — elevated run risk
  • Luis Castillo high WHIP (1.62) means more baserunners
  • High game total (10.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings