First Inning Run Predictions

15 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

0
Strong NRFI
5
Lean NRFI
6
Toss-up
4
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
PITPITatPHIPHI
O/U 5.5
6:42 PM
Citizens Bank ParkPF 1.0684°FPIT NRFI 64%PHI NRFI 64%
Paul Skenes
AwayPaul Skenes
ERA
3.16
1st Inn
WHIP
0.98
K/9
11.0
Zack Wheeler
HomeZack Wheeler
ERA
2.04
1st Inn
WHIP
0.87
K/9
8.8
73
Lean NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Paul Skenes 3.16, Zack Wheeler 2.04) — strong NRFI
  • Low game total (5.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
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TEXTEXatCLECLE
O/U 6.5
6:41 PM
Progressive FieldPF 0.9892°F9mphTEX NRFI 63%CLE NRFI 82%
MacKenzie Gore
AwayMacKenzie Gore
ERA
4.05
1st Inn
WHIP
1.25
K/9
9.6
Joey Cantillo
HomeJoey Cantillo
ERA
3.92
1st Inn
WHIP
1.34
K/9
9.0
69
Lean NRFI
  • CLE batters held scoreless in 1st inning 82% of games (31/38)
  • Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
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WSHWSHatBOSBOS
O/U 6.5
7:12 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0877°F10mphWSH NRFI 70%BOS NRFI 68%
Andrew Alvarez
AwayAndrew Alvarez
ERA
3.18
1st Inn
WHIP
1.35
K/9
10.3
Payton Tolle
HomePayton Tolle
ERA
2.98
1st Inn
WHIP
1.06
K/9
8.9
65
Lean NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Andrew Alvarez 3.18, Payton Tolle 2.98) — strong NRFI
  • WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • WSH batting lineup scores 5.2 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.08) favors YRFI
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DETDETatNYYNYY
O/U 12.5
7:11 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0785°FDET NRFI 64%NYY NRFI 76%
Troy Melton
AwayTroy Melton
ERA
2.21
1st Inn
WHIP
0.82
K/9
6.1
Will Warren
HomeWill Warren
ERA
3.52
1st Inn
WHIP
1.34
K/9
9.5
60
Lean NRFI
  • Troy Melton has elite ERA (2.21) — strong NRFI signal
  • NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (29/38)
  • High game total (12.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
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STLSTLatATLATL
O/U 6.5
7:16 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.0192°FSTL NRFI 69%ATL NRFI 68%
Michael McGreevy
AwayMichael McGreevy
ERA
3.35
1st Inn
WHIP
1.15
K/9
5.7
Reynaldo López
HomeReynaldo López
ERA
3.50
1st Inn
WHIP
1.36
K/9
7.8
56
Toss-up
  • Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
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CINCINatMILMIL
O/U 8.5
7:39 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable91°F15mphCIN NRFI 76%MIL NRFI 62%
Andrew Abbott
AwayAndrew Abbott
ERA
3.81
1st Inn
WHIP
1.42
K/9
6.9
Shane Drohan
HomeShane Drohan
ERA
3.12
1st Inn
WHIP
1.23
K/9
9.0
55
Toss-up
  • CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (28/37)
  • MIL batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+105
YRFI-140
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TBTBatKCKC
O/U 8.5
7:40 PM
Kauffman StadiumPF 0.9792°F13mphTB NRFI 54%KC NRFI 59%
Shane McClanahan
AwayShane McClanahan
ERA
3.30
1st Inn
WHIP
1.22
K/9
8.9
Seth Lugo
HomeSeth Lugo
ERA
4.18
1st Inn
WHIP
1.37
K/9
6.9
45
Toss-up
NRFI+110
YRFI-145
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MINMINatHOUHOU
O/U 8.5
8:15 PM
Minute Maid ParkPF 1.02Retractable88°F10mphMIN NRFI 57%HOU NRFI 68%
Taj Bradley
AwayTaj Bradley
ERA
4.00
1st Inn
WHIP
1.31
K/9
9.8
Tatsuya Imai
HomeTatsuya Imai
ERA
5.56
1st Inn
WHIP
1.35
K/9
10.9
42
Toss-up
  • Tatsuya Imai ERA 5.56 — elevated run risk
NRFI-120
YRFI-110
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SDSDatCHCCHC
O/U 11.5
8:05 PM
Wrigley FieldPF 1.0590°F15mphSD NRFI 74%CHC NRFI 80%
Walker Buehler
AwayWalker Buehler
ERA
3.96
1st Inn
WHIP
1.32
K/9
8.1
Colin Rea
HomeColin Rea
ERA
4.99
1st Inn
WHIP
1.40
K/9
6.7
38
Lean YRFI
  • Colin Rea ERA 4.99 — elevated run risk
  • High game total (11.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
  • Hitter-friendly weather: Thunderstorm, 90°F, 15mph wind — offense boost
  • SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (28/38)
  • CHC batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (31/39)
NRFI+135
YRFI-175
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MIAMIAatCOLCOL
O/U 11
8:40 PM
Coors FieldPF 1.2788°FMIA NRFI 72%COL NRFI 72%
Max Meyer
AwayMax Meyer
ERA
2.80
1st Inn
WHIP
1.16
K/9
10.2
Kyle Freeland
HomeKyle Freeland
ERA
7.50
1st Inn
WHIP
1.61
K/9
7.6
30
Lean YRFI
  • Kyle Freeland ERA 7.50 — elevated run risk
  • Kyle Freeland high WHIP (1.61) means more baserunners
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.27) favors YRFI
  • High game total (11) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
  • Hitter-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 88°F, 6mph wind — offense boost
NRFI+135
YRFI-180
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SFSFatARIARI
O/U 9
9:40 PM
Chase FieldPF 1.05Retractable99°F9mphSF NRFI 72%ARI NRFI 73%
Trevor McDonald
AwayTrevor McDonald
ERA
4.99
1st Inn
WHIP
1.38
K/9
8.1
Zac Gallen
HomeZac Gallen
ERA
6.04
1st Inn
WHIP
1.56
K/9
5.5
27
Lean YRFI
  • Trevor McDonald ERA 4.99 — elevated run risk
  • Zac Gallen ERA 6.04 — elevated run risk
  • Zac Gallen high WHIP (1.56) means more baserunners
  • Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
NRFI-115
YRFI-115
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NYMNYMatTORTOR
O/U 4.5
7:07 PM
Rogers CentrePF 1.03Retractable83°F9mphNYM NRFI 73%TOR NRFI 78%
Freddy Peralta
AwayFreddy Peralta
ERA
4.67
1st Inn
WHIP
1.35
K/9
8.8
TBD
HomeTBD
61.9
Lean NRFI
  • NYM batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • TOR batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (31/40)
  • Low game total (4.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • Freddy Peralta ERA 4.67 — elevated run risk
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LAALAAatSEASEA
O/U 7
9:40 PM
T-Mobile ParkPF 0.95Retractable62°FLAA NRFI 65%SEA NRFI 69%
TBD
AwayTBD
TBD
HomeTBD
54.5
Toss-up
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
NRFI-150
YRFI+115
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LADLADatOAKOAK
O/U 11
9:40 PM
Oakland ColiseumPF 0.9269°F12mphLAD NRFI 67%OAK NRFI 65%
TBD
AwayTBD
J.T. Ginn
HomeJ.T. Ginn
ERA
3.05
1st Inn
WHIP
1.20
K/9
8.0
50.7
Toss-up
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
  • Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • LAD batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • High game total (11) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
NRFI+125
YRFI-165
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CHWCHWatBALBAL
O/U 15.5
6:36 PM
Camden YardsPF 1.0487°F8mphCHW NRFI 71%BAL NRFI 68%
Noah Schultz
AwayNoah Schultz
ERA
5.82
1st Inn
WHIP
1.34
K/9
7.7
TBD
HomeTBD
35
Lean YRFI
  • Noah Schultz ERA 5.82 — elevated run risk
  • High game total (15.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • CHW batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (27/38)
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