Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMLB Analytics

First Inning Run Predictions

League base rate: NRFI has hit 51% of the last 406 games (30d).

How this score has actually done

Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 53.6% across 28 graded games, against a league base rate of 51.2%. Full record by tier.

Ask Bobby

14 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

1
Strong NRFI
6
Lean NRFI
5
Toss-up
2
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
SDSDatTBTB
O/U 6.5
1:40 PM
Tropicana FieldPF 0.93DomeSD NRFI 78%TB NRFI 76%
Robbie Ray
AwayRobbie Ray
ERA
3.19
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.32
K/9
7.7
Drew Rasmussen
HomeDrew Rasmussen
ERA
2.91
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.93
K/9
9.2
97
Strong NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Robbie Ray 3.19, Drew Rasmussen 2.91) — strong NRFI
  • SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (31/40)
  • TB batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (31/41)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
  • Fixed dome — controlled environment favors pitching
  • Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
MIAMIAatWSHWSH
O/U 3.5
12:16 PM
Nationals ParkPF 0.9986°FMIA NRFI 82%WSH NRFI 81%
Janson Junk
AwayJanson Junk
ERA
4.11
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.30
K/9
6.1
Andrew Alvarez
HomeAndrew Alvarez
ERA
3.47
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.31
K/9
8.5
73
Lean NRFI
  • MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 82% of games (32/39)
  • WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 81% of games (33/41)
  • Low game total (3.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
COLCOLatATLATL
O/U 5.5
1:36 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.0185°F8mphCOL NRFI 74%ATL NRFI 73%
Mason Adams
AwayMason Adams
ERA
1.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.17
K/9
10.5
Tyler Mahle
HomeTyler Mahle
ERA
4.34
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.31
K/9
8.5
73
Lean NRFI
  • Mason Adams has elite ERA (1.50) — strong NRFI signal
  • COL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (28/38)
  • ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (30/41)
  • Low game total (5.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
BOSBOSatNYYNYY
O/U 6.5
1:39 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0778°F11mphBOS NRFI 71%NYY NRFI 90%
Ranger Suarez
AwayRanger Suarez
ERA
3.32
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.21
K/9
8.8
Will Warren
HomeWill Warren
ERA
4.33
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.41
K/9
9.0
71
Lean NRFI
  • BOS batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (30/42)
  • NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 90% of games (36/40)
  • Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
LADLADatDETDET
O/U 7.5
2:35 PM
Comerica ParkPF 0.9674°F9mphLAD NRFI 77%DET NRFI 67%
Tyler Glasnow
AwayTyler Glasnow
ERA
3.02
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.87
K/9
11.3
Framber Valdez
HomeFramber Valdez
ERA
4.35
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.41
K/9
6.9
68
Lean NRFI
  • LAD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 77% of games (30/39)
NRFI-120
YRFI-115
View on DraftKings
KCKCatCLECLE
O/U 7.5
2:10 PM
Progressive FieldPF 0.9877°FKC NRFI 73%CLE NRFI 67%
Seth Lugo
AwaySeth Lugo
ERA
4.61
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.38
K/9
6.9
Parker Messick
HomeParker Messick
ERA
2.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.01
K/9
9.1
65
Lean NRFI
  • Parker Messick has elite ERA (2.50) — strong NRFI signal
  • KC batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • Seth Lugo ERA 4.61 — elevated run risk
NRFI+145
YRFI-195
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CINCINatCHCCHC
O/U 9
7:20 PM
Wrigley FieldPF 1.0577°F14mphCIN NRFI 76%CHC NRFI 60%
Chase Burns
AwayChase Burns
ERA
2.77
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.15
K/9
10.6
Shota Imanaga
HomeShota Imanaga
ERA
3.78
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.12
K/9
8.9
63
Lean NRFI
  • Chase Burns has elite ERA (2.77) — strong NRFI signal
  • CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (31/41)
  • Drizzle — wet conditions favor pitchers
  • CHC batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
NRFI+100
YRFI-135
View on DraftKings
PITPITatSTLSTL
O/U 7.5
2:15 PM
Busch StadiumPF 0.9993°FPIT NRFI 83%STL NRFI 71%
Braxton Ashcraft
AwayBraxton Ashcraft
ERA
3.59
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.07
K/9
9.3
Matthew Liberatore
HomeMatthew Liberatore
ERA
5.44
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.47
K/9
9.2
55
Toss-up
  • PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 83% of games (33/40)
  • STL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (30/42)
  • Matthew Liberatore ERA 5.44 — elevated run risk
NRFI+120
YRFI-165
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HOUHOUatNYMNYM
O/U 9
3:10 PM
Citi FieldPF 0.9578°F9mphHOU NRFI 71%NYM NRFI 74%
Ethan Pecko
AwayEthan Pecko
ERA
7.88
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.88
K/9
5.6
Zac Thornton
HomeZac Thornton
ERA
2.88
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.15
K/9
6.4
49
Toss-up
  • Ethan Pecko ERA 7.88 — elevated run risk
  • Ethan Pecko high WHIP (1.88) means more baserunners
  • Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
  • Zac Thornton has elite ERA (2.88) — strong NRFI signal
  • HOU batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (27/38)
  • NYM batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (29/39)
NRFI+145
YRFI-200
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SEASEAatTORTOR
O/U 8.5
1:37 PM
Rogers CentrePF 1.03Retractable67°FSEA NRFI 69%TOR NRFI 81%
Logan Gilbert
AwayLogan Gilbert
ERA
3.45
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.04
K/9
9.4
Max Scherzer
HomeMax Scherzer
ERA
6.79
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.51
K/9
7.0
48
Toss-up
  • Max Scherzer ERA 6.79 — elevated run risk
  • Max Scherzer high WHIP (1.51) means more baserunners
  • TOR batters held scoreless in 1st inning 81% of games (33/41)
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
TEXTEXatMILMIL
O/U 8.5
2:10 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable88°F16mphTEX NRFI 73%MIL NRFI 70%
Kumar Rocker
AwayKumar Rocker
ERA
4.41
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.40
K/9
8.3
Dustin May
HomeDustin May
ERA
4.56
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.29
K/9
8.5
48
Toss-up
  • Dustin May ERA 4.56 — elevated run risk
  • TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • MIL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
NRFI+105
YRFI-145
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PHIPHIatLAALAA
O/U 7.5
4:07 PM
Angel StadiumPF 0.9786°FPHI NRFI 63%LAA NRFI 62%
Zack Wheeler
AwayZack Wheeler
ERA
3.40
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.09
K/9
10.7
Yusei Kikuchi
HomeYusei Kikuchi
ERA
6.25
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.58
K/9
9.3
43
Toss-up
  • Yusei Kikuchi ERA 6.25 — elevated run risk
  • Yusei Kikuchi high WHIP (1.58) means more baserunners
NRFI-120
YRFI-115
View on DraftKings
BALBALatOAKOAK
O/U 10
4:05 PM
Oakland ColiseumPF 0.9263°FBAL NRFI 71%OAK NRFI 75%
Chris Bassitt
AwayChris Bassitt
ERA
4.74
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.55
K/9
6.2
Jeffrey Springs
HomeJeffrey Springs
ERA
6.08
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.50
K/9
7.0
32
Lean YRFI
  • Chris Bassitt ERA 4.74 — elevated run risk
  • Jeffrey Springs ERA 6.08 — elevated run risk
  • Chris Bassitt high WHIP (1.55) means more baserunners
  • High game total (10) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
  • BAL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (27/38)
  • OAK batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
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CHWCHWatMINMIN
O/U 9
2:15 PM
Target FieldPF 1.0178°FCHW NRFI 68%MIN NRFI 69%
Jordan Hicks
AwayJordan Hicks
ERA
3.83
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.53
K/9
11.0
Zebby Matthews
HomeZebby Matthews
ERA
4.86
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.31
K/9
7.6
31
Lean YRFI
  • Zebby Matthews ERA 4.86 — elevated run risk
  • Jordan Hicks high WHIP (1.53) means more baserunners
  • Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
NRFI+105
YRFI-145
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