All Matchups

Phillies

PHI (0-1)

-114

Braves

ATL (1-0)

-106
2:00 PM ET|Truist Park
51%
Win Probability
49%

The Read

The market prices this close to a coin flip (Phillies 51%) — a game to attack through props and the total, not the side.

Run total sits at 7, a low-scoring script.

The Phillies carry the pitching edge — 2.91 ERA / 1.20 WHIP versus 3.99 the other way. The Phillies run the bigger swing-and-miss arm (10.0 K/9) — the strikeout props to watch.

Both lineups run close in output — 4.4 runs/game (PHI) and 4.6 (ATL).

Conditions favor the hitters today — Truist Park (PF 1.01), a tailwind for overs and power props.

Composed from the market line and 2026 team & probable-pitcher stats — no projections.

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Cristopher Sánchez
Away

Cristopher Sánchez

LHP18-7

ERA

2.91

WHIP

1.20

K/9

10.0

BB/9

2.0

HR/9

0.8

IP

207.0

Tyler Mahle
Home

Tyler Mahle

RHP7-10

ERA

3.99

WHIP

1.23

K/9

8.3

BB/9

2.8

HR/9

1.2

IP

149.0

Stadium & Conditions

Truist ParkPF 1.01 — Neutralgrass

LF

335'

CF

400'

RF

325'

82°F

4 mph

SE

Clear

Humidity

53%

Hitter-Favorable Conditions

- Moderate elevation (1050 ft) — slight carry advantage

- Warm (82°F) — favorable hitting conditions

Moderate elevation; warm summer nights boost fly balls.

Team Comparison

PHI
ATL
4.4
R/G
4.6
0.240
AVG
0.246
0.707
OPS
0.718
0.395
SLG
0.409
182
HR
204
4.04
ERA
3.63
1.29
WHIP
1.24
9.9
K/9
8.4

NRFI Quick Take

Toss-up

No strong lean either way based on available pitching data.

Full NRFI Analysis →