Anytime Goalscorer, Total Goals O/U, and 1X2 plays where our xG-based models disagree with DraftKings. Sorted by edge.
AGS: Poisson on player xG/90, 80 expected mins. Total Goals: 2-team Poisson on team xG-for/against, 5% HFA. 1X2: Score-grid independent Poisson (0-7 each side), 10% HFA.All markets Anytime Goalscorer Total Goals 1X2
CB +27.7 edge AGS
Cedric Bakambu
Anytime Goalscorer · DR Congo vs England · Wed, Jul 1, 8:00 PM Cedric Bakambu averaging 0.58 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 40.2% vs DK 12.5%.
Model 40.2% vs DK 12.5% · +221.6% EV
MG +26.5 edge AGS
Michael Gregoritsch
Anytime Goalscorer · Austria vs Spain · Thu, Jul 2, 11:00 PM Michael Gregoritsch averaging 0.64 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 43.2% vs DK 16.7%.
Model 43.2% vs DK 16.7% · +159.3% EV
+26.3 edge AGS
Alexander Sorloth
Anytime Goalscorer · Norway vs Brazil · Mon, Jul 6, 12:00 AM Alexander Sorloth averaging 0.70 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 46.3% vs DK 20.0%.
Model 46.3% vs DK 20.0% · +131.4% EV
AB +25.2 edge AGS
Ante Budimir
Anytime Goalscorer · Croatia vs Portugal · Fri, Jul 3, 3:00 AM Ante Budimir averaging 0.72 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 47.4% vs DK 22.2%.
Model 47.4% vs DK 22.2% · +113.2% EV
YW +24.4 edge AGS
Yoane Wissa
Anytime Goalscorer · DR Congo vs England · Wed, Jul 1, 8:00 PM Yoane Wissa averaging 0.53 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 37.7% vs DK 13.3%.
Model 37.7% vs DK 13.3% · +182.7% EV
RA +22.0 edge AGS
Raphinha
Anytime Goalscorer · Norway vs Brazil · Mon, Jul 6, 12:00 AM Raphinha averaging 0.83 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 52.3% vs DK 30.3%.
Model 52.3% vs DK 30.3% · +72.5% EV
AK +21.2 edge AGS
Andrej Kramaric
Anytime Goalscorer · Croatia vs Portugal · Fri, Jul 3, 3:00 AM Andrej Kramaric averaging 0.58 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 40.3% vs DK 19.0%.
Model 40.3% vs DK 19.0% · +111.5% EV
NJ +20.5 edge AGS
Nicolas Jackson
Anytime Goalscorer · Senegal vs Belgium · Thu, Jul 2, 12:00 AM Nicolas Jackson averaging 0.68 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 45.5% vs DK 25.0%.
Model 45.5% vs DK 25.0% · +82.1% EV
IG +19.5 edge AGS
Idrissa Gana Gueye
Anytime Goalscorer · Senegal vs Belgium · Thu, Jul 2, 12:00 AM Idrissa Gana Gueye averaging 0.34 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 26.2% vs DK 6.7%.
Model 26.2% vs DK 6.7% · +292.4% EV
+17.8 edge AGS
Vitinha
Anytime Goalscorer · Croatia vs Portugal · Fri, Jul 3, 3:00 AM Vitinha averaging 0.37 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 28.3% vs DK 10.5%.
Model 28.3% vs DK 10.5% · +169.1% EV
RB +16.8 edge AGS
Ramy Bensebaini
Anytime Goalscorer · Algeria vs Switzerland · Fri, Jul 3, 7:00 AM Ramy Bensebaini averaging 0.31 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 24.0% vs DK 7.1%.
Model 24.0% vs DK 7.1% · +235.4% EV
NO +15.9 edge AGS
Noah Okafor
Anytime Goalscorer · Algeria vs Switzerland · Fri, Jul 3, 7:00 AM Noah Okafor averaging 0.58 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 40.3% vs DK 24.4%.
Model 40.3% vs DK 24.4% · +65.3% EV
LV +15.2 edge AGS
Luka Vuskovic
Anytime Goalscorer · Croatia vs Portugal · Fri, Jul 3, 3:00 AM Luka Vuskovic averaging 0.26 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 20.5% vs DK 5.3%.
Model 20.5% vs DK 5.3% · +288.8% EV
IS +15.0 edge AGS
Ismaila Sarr
Anytime Goalscorer · Senegal vs Belgium · Thu, Jul 2, 12:00 AM Ismaila Sarr averaging 0.51 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 36.7% vs DK 21.7%.
Model 36.7% vs DK 21.7% · +68.8% EV
IM +14.2 edge AGS
Ibrahim Maza
Anytime Goalscorer · Algeria vs Switzerland · Fri, Jul 3, 7:00 AM Ibrahim Maza averaging 0.38 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 28.5% vs DK 14.3%.
Model 28.5% vs DK 14.3% · +99.3% EV
IW +13.4 edge AGS
Inaki Williams
Anytime Goalscorer · Ghana vs Colombia · Sat, Jul 4, 5:30 AM Inaki Williams averaging 0.32 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 24.6% vs DK 11.1%.
Model 24.6% vs DK 11.1% · +121.0% EV
MM +12.9 edge AGS
Mikel Merino
Anytime Goalscorer · Austria vs Spain · Thu, Jul 2, 11:00 PM Mikel Merino averaging 0.53 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 37.3% vs DK 24.4%.
Model 37.3% vs DK 24.4% · +52.9% EV
IM +12.8 edge AGS
Igor Matanovic
Anytime Goalscorer · Croatia vs Portugal · Fri, Jul 3, 3:00 AM Igor Matanovic averaging 0.45 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 32.8% vs DK 20.0%.
Model 32.8% vs DK 20.0% · +64.1% EV
AO +11.1 edge AGS
Amadou Onana
Anytime Goalscorer · Senegal vs Belgium · Thu, Jul 2, 12:00 AM Amadou Onana averaging 0.24 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 19.4% vs DK 8.3%.
Model 19.4% vs DK 8.3% · +132.7% EV
ED +11.1 edge AGS
Ermedin Demirovic
Anytime Goalscorer · Bosnia vs USA · Thu, Jul 2, 4:00 AM Ermedin Demirovic averaging 0.37 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 27.7% vs DK 16.7%.
Model 27.7% vs DK 16.7% · +66.3% EV
JQ +10.8 edge AGS
Jarell Quansah
Anytime Goalscorer · DR Congo vs England · Wed, Jul 1, 8:00 PM Jarell Quansah averaging 0.19 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 15.8% vs DK 5.0%.
Model 15.8% vs DK 5.0% · +215.2% EV
NG +10.7 edge AGS
Nicolas Gonzalez
Anytime Goalscorer · Cape Verde vs Argentina · Sat, Jul 4, 2:00 AM Nicolas Gonzalez averaging 0.45 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 32.9% vs DK 22.2%.
Model 32.9% vs DK 22.2% · +48.1% EV
NO +10.5 edge AGS
Nico O'Reilly
Anytime Goalscorer · DR Congo vs England · Wed, Jul 1, 8:00 PM Nico O'Reilly averaging 0.27 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 21.6% vs DK 11.1%.
Model 21.6% vs DK 11.1% · +94.3% EV
PW +9.0 edge AGS
Patrick Wimmer
Anytime Goalscorer · Austria vs Spain · Thu, Jul 2, 11:00 PM Patrick Wimmer averaging 0.20 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 16.2% vs DK 7.1%.
Model 16.2% vs DK 7.1% · +126.5% EV
CA +8.7 edge AGS
Casemiro
Anytime Goalscorer · Norway vs Brazil · Mon, Jul 6, 12:00 AM Casemiro averaging 0.22 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 17.8% vs DK 9.1%.
Model 17.8% vs DK 9.1% · +95.3% EV
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