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Anytime Goalscorer, Total Goals O/U, and 1X2 plays where our xG-based models disagree with DraftKings. Filter by market, league, or minimum edge.

AGS: Poisson on player xG/90, 80 expected mins. Total Goals: 2-team Poisson on team xG-for/against, 5% HFA. 1X2: Score-grid independent Poisson (0-7 each side), 10% HFA. Top-4 European leagues only (Understat coverage).
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1
Taiwo Awoniyi
+38.2 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Taiwo Awoniyi
Anytime Goalscorer·Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd· Sun, May 17, 3:30 PM

Taiwo Awoniyi averaging 1.33 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 69.5% vs DK 31.3%.

Model69.5%vsDK31.3%·+122.3% EV
+220
DK
2
West Ham
+27.3 edge1X2eplEnglish Premier League
West Ham
Match Result·West Ham vs Newcastle· Sun, May 17, 8:30 PM

Model: West Ham λ=2.08 vs Newcastle λ=1.18. West Ham hits 58.1% (DK 30.8%).

Model58.1%vsDK30.8%·+88.8% EV
+225
DK
3
Callum Wilson
+23.0 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Callum Wilson
Anytime Goalscorer·West Ham vs Newcastle· Sun, May 17, 8:30 PM

Callum Wilson averaging 0.93 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 56.3% vs DK 33.3%.

Model56.3%vsDK33.3%·+69.0% EV
+200
DK
4
Tolu Arokodare
+22.2 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Tolu Arokodare
Anytime Goalscorer·Fulham vs Wolves· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Tolu Arokodare averaging 0.69 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 46.0% vs DK 23.8%.

Model46.0%vsDK23.8%·+93.2% EV
+320
DK
5
Morato
+19.5 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Morato
Anytime Goalscorer·Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd· Sun, May 17, 3:30 PM

Morato averaging 0.28 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 22.0% vs DK 2.4%.

Model22.0%vsDK2.4%·+801.5% EV
+4000
DK
6
Crystal Palace
+18.6 edge1X2eplEnglish Premier League
Crystal Palace
Match Result·Crystal Palace vs Brentford· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Model: Crystal Palace λ=1.78 vs Brentford λ=1.60. Crystal Palace hits 42.4% (DK 23.8%).

Model42.4%vsDK23.8%·+78.1% EV
+320
DK
7
JD
+18.5 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Justin Devenny
Anytime Goalscorer·Crystal Palace vs Brentford· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Justin Devenny averaging 0.33 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 25.2% vs DK 6.7%.

Model25.2%vsDK6.7%·+278.1% EV
+1400
DK
8
Sunderland
+18.1 edge1X2eplEnglish Premier League
Sunderland
Match Result·Sunderland vs Everton· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Model: Sunderland λ=1.59 vs Everton λ=1.41. Sunderland hits 41.9% (DK 23.8%).

Model41.9%vsDK23.8%·+75.9% EV
+320
DK
9
Zian Flemming
+17.0 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Zian Flemming
Anytime Goalscorer·Burnley vs Arsenal· Mon, May 18, 11:00 PM

Zian Flemming averaging 0.52 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 37.0% vs DK 20.0%.

Model37.0%vsDK20.0%·+85.2% EV
+400
DK
10
Idrissa Gana Gueye
+16.3 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Idrissa Gana Gueye
Anytime Goalscorer·Sunderland vs Everton· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Idrissa Gana Gueye averaging 0.35 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 26.8% vs DK 10.5%.

Model26.8%vsDK10.5%·+154.9% EV
+850
DK
11
JK
+14.6 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Joshua King
Anytime Goalscorer·Fulham vs Wolves· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Joshua King averaging 0.49 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 35.5% vs DK 20.8%.

Model35.5%vsDK20.8%·+70.2% EV
+380
DK
12
Nottingham Forest
+13.5 edge1X2eplEnglish Premier League
Nottingham Forest
Match Result·Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd· Sun, May 17, 3:30 PM

Model: Nottingham Forest λ=1.29 vs Man Utd λ=1.43. Nottingham Forest hits 33.9% (DK 20.4%).

Model33.9%vsDK20.4%·+66.2% EV
+390
DK
13
Thierno Barry
+12.8 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Thierno Barry
Anytime Goalscorer·Sunderland vs Everton· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Thierno Barry averaging 0.78 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 49.8% vs DK 37.0%.

Model49.8%vsDK37.0%·+34.5% EV
+170
DK
14
Kaoru Mitoma
+12.5 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Kaoru Mitoma
Anytime Goalscorer·Brighton vs Leeds· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Kaoru Mitoma averaging 0.41 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 30.7% vs DK 18.2%.

Model30.7%vsDK18.2%·+69.0% EV
+450
DK
15
Fulham
+11.8 edge1X2eplEnglish Premier League
Fulham
Match Result·Fulham vs Wolves· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Model: Fulham λ=2.23 vs Wolves λ=1.04. Fulham hits 64.1% (DK 52.4%).

Model64.1%vsDK52.4%·+22.5% EV
−110
DK
16
BrightonLeeds
+10.1 edgeTotal GoalseplEnglish Premier League
Under 2.5
Total Goals O/U·Brighton vs Leeds· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Model: Brighton (1.69 xG/g) + Leeds (1.68 xG/g) → 2.45 expected total. Under 2.5 hits 55.6% (DK 45.5%).

Model55.6%vsDK45.5%·+22.3% EV
+120
DK
17
Jefferson Lerma
+9.6 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Jefferson Lerma
Anytime Goalscorer·Crystal Palace vs Brentford· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Jefferson Lerma averaging 0.19 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 15.5% vs DK 5.9%.

Model15.5%vsDK5.9%·+163.1% EV
+1600
DK
18
Jean-Philippe Mateta
+9.3 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Anytime Goalscorer·Crystal Palace vs Brentford· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Jean-Philippe Mateta averaging 0.62 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 42.1% vs DK 32.8%.

Model42.1%vsDK32.8%·+28.5% EV
+205
DK
19
Yoane Wissa
+9.3 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Yoane Wissa
Anytime Goalscorer·West Ham vs Newcastle· Sun, May 17, 8:30 PM

Yoane Wissa averaging 0.57 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 39.6% vs DK 30.3%.

Model39.6%vsDK30.3%·+30.7% EV
+230
DK
20
Jaydee Canvot
+9.3 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Jaydee Canvot
Anytime Goalscorer·Crystal Palace vs Brentford· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Jaydee Canvot averaging 0.15 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 12.5% vs DK 3.2%.

Model12.5%vsDK3.2%·+287.1% EV
+3000
DK
21
BrightonLeeds
+9.0 edgeTotal GoalseplEnglish Premier League
Under 3.5
Total Goals O/U·Brighton vs Leeds· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Model: Brighton (1.69 xG/g) + Leeds (1.68 xG/g) → 2.45 expected total. Under 3.5 hits 76.8% (DK 67.8%).

Model76.8%vsDK67.8%·+13.3% EV
−210
DK
22
Ismaila Sarr
+7.8 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Ismaila Sarr
Anytime Goalscorer·Crystal Palace vs Brentford· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Ismaila Sarr averaging 0.51 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 36.4% vs DK 28.6%.

Model36.4%vsDK28.6%·+27.4% EV
+250
DK
23
Lyle Foster
+7.6 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Lyle Foster
Anytime Goalscorer·Burnley vs Arsenal· Mon, May 18, 11:00 PM

Lyle Foster averaging 0.21 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 16.7% vs DK 9.1%.

Model16.7%vsDK9.1%·+83.7% EV
+1000
DK
24
Tyrone Mings
+7.5 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Tyrone Mings
Anytime Goalscorer·Liverpool vs Aston Villa· Fri, May 15, 11:00 PM

Tyrone Mings averaging 0.15 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 12.5% vs DK 5.0%.

Model12.5%vsDK5.0%·+149.0% EV
+1900
DK
25
Marcus Edwards
+7.4 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Marcus Edwards
Anytime Goalscorer·Burnley vs Arsenal· Mon, May 18, 11:00 PM

Marcus Edwards averaging 0.17 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 14.1% vs DK 6.7%.

Model14.1%vsDK6.7%·+111.6% EV
+1400
DK
26
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
+7.4 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Anytime Goalscorer·Brighton vs Leeds· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Dominic Calvert-Lewin averaging 0.66 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 44.4% vs DK 37.0%.

Model44.4%vsDK37.0%·+19.9% EV
+170
DK
27
Jack Hinshelwood
+7.3 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Jack Hinshelwood
Anytime Goalscorer·Brighton vs Leeds· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Jack Hinshelwood averaging 0.39 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 29.5% vs DK 22.2%.

Model29.5%vsDK22.2%·+32.7% EV
+350
DK
28
Virgil van Dijk
+7.1 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Virgil van Dijk
Anytime Goalscorer·Liverpool vs Aston Villa· Fri, May 15, 11:00 PM

Virgil van Dijk averaging 0.23 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 18.2% vs DK 11.1%.

Model18.2%vsDK11.1%·+64.1% EV
+800
DK
29
Crystal PalaceBrentford
+7.0 edgeTotal GoalseplEnglish Premier League
Over 3.5
Total Goals O/U·Crystal Palace vs Brentford· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Model: Crystal Palace (1.53 xG/g) + Brentford (1.68 xG/g) → 3.39 expected total. Over 3.5 hits 44.0% (DK 37.0%).

Model44.0%vsDK37.0%·+18.9% EV
+170
DK
30
BrightonLeeds
+7.0 edgeTotal GoalseplEnglish Premier League
Under 1.5
Total Goals O/U·Brighton vs Leeds· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Model: Brighton (1.69 xG/g) + Leeds (1.68 xG/g) → 2.45 expected total. Under 1.5 hits 29.7% (DK 22.7%).

Model29.7%vsDK22.7%·+30.7% EV
+340
DK
31
Manuel Ugarte
+6.9 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Manuel Ugarte
Anytime Goalscorer·Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd· Sun, May 17, 3:30 PM

Manuel Ugarte averaging 0.19 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 15.2% vs DK 8.3%.

Model15.2%vsDK8.3%·+82.9% EV
+1100
DK
32
Ryan Yates
+6.4 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Ryan Yates
Anytime Goalscorer·Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd· Sun, May 17, 3:30 PM

Ryan Yates averaging 0.17 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 14.1% vs DK 7.7%.

Model14.1%vsDK7.7%·+83.1% EV
+1200
DK
33
Amadou Onana
+6.1 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Amadou Onana
Anytime Goalscorer·Liverpool vs Aston Villa· Fri, May 15, 11:00 PM

Amadou Onana averaging 0.21 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 17.2% vs DK 11.1%.

Model17.2%vsDK11.1%·+55.0% EV
+800
DK
34
Crystal PalaceBrentford
+5.9 edgeTotal GoalseplEnglish Premier League
Over 2.5
Total Goals O/U·Crystal Palace vs Brentford· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Model: Crystal Palace (1.53 xG/g) + Brentford (1.68 xG/g) → 3.39 expected total. Over 2.5 hits 65.9% (DK 60.0%).

Model65.9%vsDK60.0%·+9.9% EV
−150
DK
35
Noah Sadiki
+5.8 edgeAGSeplEnglish Premier League
Noah Sadiki
Anytime Goalscorer·Sunderland vs Everton· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Noah Sadiki averaging 0.13 xG/90 over last 10 games — model 11.0% vs DK 5.3%.

Model11.0%vsDK5.3%·+109.5% EV
+1800
DK
36
SunderlandEverton
+5.6 edgeTotal GoalseplEnglish Premier League
Over 2.5
Total Goals O/U·Sunderland vs Everton· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Model: Sunderland (1.31 xG/g) + Everton (1.47 xG/g) → 3.01 expected total. Over 2.5 hits 58.0% (DK 52.4%).

Model58.0%vsDK52.4%·+10.7% EV
−110
DK
37
SunderlandEverton
+5.3 edgeTotal GoalseplEnglish Premier League
Over 3.5
Total Goals O/U·Sunderland vs Everton· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Model: Sunderland (1.31 xG/g) + Everton (1.47 xG/g) → 3.01 expected total. Over 3.5 hits 35.6% (DK 30.3%).

Model35.6%vsDK30.3%·+17.4% EV
+230
DK
38
BurnleyArsenal
+5.2 edge1X2eplEnglish Premier League
Draw
Match Result·Burnley vs Arsenal· Mon, May 18, 11:00 PM

Model: Burnley λ=0.85 vs Arsenal λ=2.71. Draw hits 14.3% (DK 9.1%).

Model14.3%vsDK9.1%·+57.6% EV
+1000
DK
39
Nottingham ForestMan Utd
+5.1 edgeTotal GoalseplEnglish Premier League
Under 3.5
Total Goals O/U·Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd· Sun, May 17, 3:30 PM

Model: Nottingham Forest (1.30 xG/g) + Man Utd (1.58 xG/g) → 2.73 expected total. Under 3.5 hits 70.7% (DK 65.5%).

Model70.7%vsDK65.5%·+7.8% EV
−190
DK
40
Nottingham ForestMan Utd
+5.1 edgeTotal GoalseplEnglish Premier League
Under 2.5
Total Goals O/U·Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd· Sun, May 17, 3:30 PM

Model: Nottingham Forest (1.30 xG/g) + Man Utd (1.58 xG/g) → 2.73 expected total. Under 2.5 hits 48.5% (DK 43.5%).

Model48.5%vsDK43.5%·+11.6% EV
+130
DK
41
FulhamWolves
+4.7 edgeTotal GoalseplEnglish Premier League
Over 3.5
Total Goals O/U·Fulham vs Wolves· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Model: Fulham (1.49 xG/g) + Wolves (1.02 xG/g) → 3.23 expected total. Over 3.5 hits 40.4% (DK 35.7%).

Model40.4%vsDK35.7%·+13.1% EV
+180
DK
42
Burnley
+4.4 edge1X2eplEnglish Premier League
Burnley
Match Result·Burnley vs Arsenal· Mon, May 18, 11:00 PM

Model: Burnley λ=0.85 vs Arsenal λ=2.71. Burnley hits 9.2% (DK 4.8%).

Model9.2%vsDK4.8%·+93.0% EV
+2000
DK
43
FulhamWolves
+4.3 edgeTotal GoalseplEnglish Premier League
Over 2.5
Total Goals O/U·Fulham vs Wolves· Sun, May 17, 6:00 PM

Model: Fulham (1.49 xG/g) + Wolves (1.02 xG/g) → 3.23 expected total. Over 2.5 hits 62.6% (DK 58.3%).

Model62.6%vsDK58.3%·+7.3% EV
−140
DK

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