AI-Powered MLB Picks

Today's Best MLB Game Picks

Data-driven picks powered by team statistics, pitching matchups, park factors, and DraftKings odds analysis.

17Picks

11High Conf

6ML

0Run Line

11Totals

Best Bet of the Day

A+

High

Moneyline

+16.2%Model Edge

MIA@MINMay 14 · 1:41 PM ET

MIA ML +850

Braxton Garrett vs Zebby Matthews

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•Model gives MIA a 26.1% win probability vs DraftKings implied 9.9% -- a 16.2% edge.
•Starting Braxton Garrett on the mound.

All Ranked Picks

11 games analyzed

A+

High

Moneyline

+16.2%Model Edge

MIA@MINMay 14 · 1:41 PM ET

MIA ML +850

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

Model: 26.1%DK Implied: 9.9%

PF 1.01 · Neutral

SP: Braxton GarrettvsSP: Zebby Matthews

R/G4.38

ERA4.60

OPS0.707

Record20-23

AI Analysis

•Model gives MIA a 26.1% win probability vs DraftKings implied 9.9% -- a 16.2% edge.
•Starting Braxton Garrett on the mound.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.38

R/G

4.19

4.60

ERA

4.55

0.707

OPS

0.707

0.95

HR/G

1.18

1.30

WHIP

1.31

May 14 · 1:41 PM ETTarget Field

Full Breakdown

A+

High

Moneyline

+14.8%Model Edge

DET@NYMMay 14 · 1:10 PM ET

DET ML +650

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

Model: 27.3%DK Implied: 12.5%

PF 0.95 · Slightly pitcher-friendly

SP: Keider MonterovsSP: Nolan McLean

R/G4.68

ERA3.95

OPS0.729

Record19-24

AI Analysis

•Model gives DET a 27.3% win probability vs DraftKings implied 12.5% -- a 14.8% edge.
•Starting Keider Montero on the mound.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.68

R/G

4.73

3.95

ERA

4.03

0.729

OPS

0.753

1.22

HR/G

1.38

1.25

WHIP

1.32

May 14 · 1:10 PM ETCiti Field

Full Breakdown

A+

High

Total

+4.3Run Diff

COL@PITMay 14 · 12:36 PM ET

Under 11.5

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

PF 0.96 · Slightly pitcher-friendly

SP: Chase DollandervsSP: Mason Montgomery

Proj7.2

Line11.5

Diff4.3

PF0.96

AI Analysis

•Projected total of 7.2 runs vs line of 11.5 -- a 4.3-run discrepancy.
•Combined pitching strength: COL (5.97 ERA) and PIT (3.76 ERA) limit scoring.
•PNC Park (PF 0.96) is pitcher-friendly -- suppresses offense.

Head-to-Head Stats

3.69

R/G

3.60

5.97

ERA

3.76

0.679

OPS

0.655

0.99

HR/G

0.72

1.58

WHIP

1.22

May 14 · 12:36 PM ETPNC Park

Full Breakdown

A+

High

Total

+3.6Run Diff

PHI@BOSMay 14 · 6:45 PM ET

Over 7

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PF 1.08 · Hitter-friendly

SP: Jesús LuzardovsSP: Ranger Suarez

Proj10.6

Line7

Diff3.6

PF1.08

AI Analysis

•Projected total of 10.6 runs vs line of 7 -- a 3.6-run discrepancy.
•Combined offense: PHI (4.80 R/G) + BOS (4.85 R/G) = 9.7 combined R/G.
•Fenway Park (PF 1.08) is hitter-friendly -- hitter-friendly. Totals trend higher here.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.80

R/G

4.85

3.79

ERA

3.70

0.759

OPS

0.745

1.31

HR/G

1.15

1.23

WHIP

1.29

May 14 · 6:45 PM ETFenway Park

Full Breakdown

A+

High

Total

+3.0Run Diff

WSH@CINMay 14 · 12:41 PM ET

Under 12.5

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

PF 1.09 · Hitter-friendly

SP: Foster GriffinvsSP: Chase Burns

Proj9.5

Line12.5

Diff3.0

PF1.09

AI Analysis

•Projected total of 9.5 runs vs line of 12.5 -- a 3.0-run discrepancy.
•Combined pitching strength: WSH (5.35 ERA) and CIN (3.86 ERA) limit scoring.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.24

R/G

4.42

5.35

ERA

3.86

0.693

OPS

0.706

0.99

HR/G

1.03

1.45

WHIP

1.22

May 14 · 12:41 PM ETGreat American Ball Park

Full Breakdown

A+

High

Total

+2.8Run Diff

MIA@MINMay 14 · 1:41 PM ET

Under 11.5

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

PF 1.01 · Neutral

SP: Braxton GarrettvsSP: Zebby Matthews

Proj8.7

Line11.5

Diff2.8

PF1.01

AI Analysis

•Projected total of 8.7 runs vs line of 11.5 -- a 2.8-run discrepancy.
•Combined pitching strength: MIA (4.60 ERA) and MIN (4.55 ERA) limit scoring.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.38

R/G

4.19

4.60

ERA

4.55

0.707

OPS

0.707

0.95

HR/G

1.18

1.30

WHIP

1.31

May 14 · 1:41 PM ETTarget Field

Full Breakdown

A+

High

Total

+2.4Run Diff

DET@NYMMay 14 · 1:10 PM ET

Under 11.5

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

PF 0.95 · Slightly pitcher-friendly

SP: Keider MonterovsSP: Nolan McLean

Proj9.1

Line11.5

Diff2.4

PF0.95

AI Analysis

•Projected total of 9.1 runs vs line of 11.5 -- a 2.4-run discrepancy.
•Combined pitching strength: DET (3.95 ERA) and NYM (4.03 ERA) limit scoring.
•Citi Field (PF 0.95) is pitcher-friendly -- suppresses offense.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.68

R/G

4.73

3.95

ERA

4.03

0.729

OPS

0.753

1.22

HR/G

1.38

1.25

WHIP

1.32

May 14 · 1:10 PM ETCiti Field

Full Breakdown

A+

High

Total

+2.1Run Diff

CHC@ATLMay 14 · 7:15 PM ET

Over 7.5

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

PF 1.01 · Neutral

SP: Ben BrownvsSP: Chris Sale

Proj9.6

Line7.5

Diff2.1

PF1.01

AI Analysis

•Projected total of 9.6 runs vs line of 7.5 -- a 2.1-run discrepancy.
•Combined offense: CHC (4.90 R/G) + ATL (4.47 R/G) = 9.4 combined R/G.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.90

R/G

4.47

3.79

ERA

4.36

0.750

OPS

0.719

1.38

HR/G

1.17

1.18

WHIP

1.31

May 14 · 7:15 PM ETTruist Park

Full Breakdown

High

Moneyline

+9.9%Model Edge

SEA@HOUMay 14 · 2:10 PM ET

HOU ML +293

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

Model: 33.8%DK Implied: 23.9%

PF 1.02 · Slightly hitter-friendly

SP: Luis CastillovsSP: Mike Burrows

R/G4.23

ERA3.86

OPS0.714

Record17-27

AI Analysis

•Model gives HOU a 33.8% win probability vs DraftKings implied 23.9% -- a 9.9% edge.
•Home-field advantage at Minute Maid Park.
•Starting Mike Burrows on the mound.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.73

R/G

4.23

3.87

ERA

3.86

0.740

OPS

0.714

1.47

HR/G

1.12

1.22

WHIP

1.22

May 14 · 2:10 PM ETMinute Maid Park

Full Breakdown

#10

High

Total

+1.9Run Diff

STL@OAKMay 14 · 3:05 PM ET

Under 10

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

PF 0.92 · Pitcher-friendly

Proj8.1

Line10

Diff1.9

PF0.92

AI Analysis

•Projected total of 8.1 runs vs line of 10 -- a 1.9-run discrepancy.
•Combined pitching strength: STL (4.29 ERA) and OAK (4.70 ERA) limit scoring.
•Oakland Coliseum (PF 0.92) is pitcher-friendly -- suppresses offense.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.25

R/G

4.52

4.29

ERA

4.70

0.693

OPS

0.749

0.91

HR/G

1.35

1.32

WHIP

1.36

May 14 · 3:05 PM ETOakland Coliseum

Full Breakdown

#11

High

Total

+1.7Run Diff

SD@MILMay 14 · 1:40 PM ET

Under 11.5

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

PF 1.02 · Slightly hitter-friendly

SP: Griffin CanningvsSP: Kyle Harrison

Proj9.8

Line11.5

Diff1.7

PF1.02

AI Analysis

•Projected total of 9.8 runs vs line of 11.5 -- a 1.7-run discrepancy.
•Combined pitching strength: SD (3.63 ERA) and MIL (3.58 ERA) limit scoring.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.33

R/G

4.98

3.63

ERA

3.58

0.711

OPS

0.735

0.94

HR/G

1.02

1.21

WHIP

1.23

May 14 · 1:40 PM ETAmerican Family Field

Full Breakdown

#12

Medium

Total

+1.3Run Diff

SF@LADMay 14 · 10:10 PM ET

Over 8

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

PF 0.97 · Slightly pitcher-friendly

SP: Landen RouppvsSP: Emmet Sheehan

Proj9.3

Line8

Diff1.3

PF0.97

AI Analysis

•Projected total of 9.3 runs vs line of 8 -- a 1.3-run discrepancy.
•Combined offense: SF (4.35 R/G) + LAD (5.09 R/G) = 9.4 combined R/G.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.35

R/G

5.09

3.82

ERA

3.95

0.697

OPS

0.768

1.07

HR/G

1.51

1.30

WHIP

1.26

May 14 · 10:10 PM ETDodger Stadium

Full Breakdown

#13

B+

Medium

Moneyline

+5.1%Model Edge

CHC@ATLMay 14 · 7:15 PM ET

CHC ML +149

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

Model: 43.5%DK Implied: 38.4%

PF 1.01 · Neutral

SP: Ben BrownvsSP: Chris Sale

R/G4.90

ERA3.79

OPS0.750

Record27-16

AI Analysis

•Model gives CHC a 43.5% win probability vs DraftKings implied 38.4% -- a 5.1% edge.
•CHC averages 4.90 runs/game, outscoring ATL (4.47 R/G).
•Pitching edge: CHC staff ERA 3.79 vs ATL 4.36.
•Starting Ben Brown on the mound.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.90

R/G

4.47

3.79

ERA

4.36

0.750

OPS

0.719

1.38

HR/G

1.17

1.18

WHIP

1.31

May 14 · 7:15 PM ETTruist Park

Full Breakdown

#14

B+

Medium

Total

+1.1Run Diff

SEA@HOUMay 14 · 2:10 PM ET

Under 10.5

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

PF 1.02 · Slightly hitter-friendly

SP: Luis CastillovsSP: Mike Burrows

Proj9.4

Line10.5

Diff1.1

PF1.02

AI Analysis

•Projected total of 9.4 runs vs line of 10.5 -- a 1.1-run discrepancy.
•Combined pitching strength: SEA (3.87 ERA) and HOU (3.86 ERA) limit scoring.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.73

R/G

4.23

3.87

ERA

3.86

0.740

OPS

0.714

1.47

HR/G

1.12

1.22

WHIP

1.22

May 14 · 2:10 PM ETMinute Maid Park

Full Breakdown

#15

B+

Medium

Total

+0.8Run Diff

KC@CHWMay 14 · 7:40 PM ET

Over 8

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

PF 1.04 · Slightly hitter-friendly

Proj8.8

Line8

Diff0.8

PF1.04

AI Analysis

•Projected total of 8.8 runs vs line of 8 -- a 0.8-run discrepancy.
•Combined offense: KC (4.02 R/G) + CHW (3.99 R/G) = 8.0 combined R/G.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.02

R/G

3.99

3.73

ERA

4.26

0.706

OPS

0.675

0.98

HR/G

1.02

1.24

WHIP

1.36

May 14 · 7:40 PM ETGuaranteed Rate Field

Full Breakdown

#16

Low

Moneyline

+3.3%Model Edge

SF@LADMay 14 · 10:10 PM ET

SF ML +149

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

Model: 41.7%DK Implied: 38.4%

PF 0.97 · Slightly pitcher-friendly

SP: Landen RouppvsSP: Emmet Sheehan

R/G4.35

ERA3.82

OPS0.697

Record18-25

AI Analysis

•Model gives SF a 41.7% win probability vs DraftKings implied 38.4% -- a 3.3% edge.
•Starting Landen Roupp on the mound.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.35

R/G

5.09

3.82

ERA

3.95

0.697

OPS

0.768

1.07

HR/G

1.51

1.30

WHIP

1.26

May 14 · 10:10 PM ETDodger Stadium

Full Breakdown

#17

Low

Moneyline

+2.1%Model Edge

KC@CHWMay 14 · 7:40 PM ET

CHW ML +114

Bet NowOdds via DraftKings

Model: 46.8%DK Implied: 44.7%

PF 1.04 · Slightly hitter-friendly

R/G3.99

ERA4.26

OPS0.675

Record--

AI Analysis

•Model gives CHW a 46.8% win probability vs DraftKings implied 44.7% -- a 2.1% edge.
•Home-field advantage at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Head-to-Head Stats

4.02

R/G

3.99

3.73

ERA

4.26

0.706

OPS

0.675

0.98

HR/G

1.02

1.24

WHIP

1.36

May 14 · 7:40 PM ETGuaranteed Rate Field

Full Breakdown

Odds from DraftKings. Team stats from MLB Stats API. Park factors from historical data. Analysis is auto-generated for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.