All Matchups

Mariners

SEA (64-72)

+265

Blue Jays

TOR (67-70)

-316
1:37 PM ET|Rogers Centre
27%
Win Probability
73%

The Read

The market makes the Blue Jays the favorite โ€” about 73% implied to beat the Mariners, laying the standard โˆ’1.5 run line.

Run total sits at 7.5, a low-scoring script.

The Mariners carry the pitching edge โ€” 3.43 ERA / 1.03 WHIP versus 6.75 the other way.

Both lineups run close in output โ€” 3.9 runs/game (SEA) and 3.9 (TOR).

Composed from the market line and 2026 team & probable-pitcher stats โ€” no projections.

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Logan Gilbert
Away

Logan Gilbert

RHP11-7

ERA

3.43

WHIP

1.03

K/9

9.4

BB/9

2.3

HR/9

1.3

IP

157.1

Max Scherzer
Home

Max Scherzer

RHP1-7

ERA

6.75

WHIP

1.50

K/9

6.9

BB/9

4.5

HR/9

2.1

IP

52.0

Stadium & Conditions

Rogers CentrePF 1.03 โ€” Slightly hitter-friendlyRetractable Roofturf

LF

328'

CF

400'

RF

328'

66ยฐF

4 mph

SW

Cloudy

Humidity

96%

Neutral Conditions

- High humidity (96%) โ€” heavier air, slightly less carry

Retractable roof + artificial turf = faster ground balls. Hitter-friendly when open.

Team Comparison

SEA
TOR
3.9
R/G
3.9
0.227
AVG
0.246
0.681
OPS
0.688
0.373
SLG
0.381
157
HR
130
4.14
ERA
3.96
1.24
WHIP
1.31
8.6
K/9
8.8

NRFI Quick Take

Lean YRFI

At least one pitcher with ERA above 4.50 โ€” elevated scoring risk.

Full NRFI Analysis โ†’