All Matchups

White Sox

CHW (72-63)

+121

Twins

MIN (64-72)

-139
2:11 PM ET|Target Field
44%
Win Probability
56%

The Read

The market makes the Twins the favorite โ€” about 56% implied to beat the White Sox, laying the standard โˆ’1.5 run line.

Run total sits at 8.5.

The White Sox carry the pitching edge โ€” 3.83 ERA / 1.53 WHIP versus 4.82 the other way. The White Sox run the bigger swing-and-miss arm (11.0 K/9) โ€” the strikeout props to watch.

Both lineups run close in output โ€” 4.8 runs/game (CHW) and 4.5 (MIN).

Composed from the market line and 2026 team & probable-pitcher stats โ€” no projections.

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Jordan Hicks
Away

Jordan Hicks

RHP2-1

ERA

3.83

WHIP

1.53

K/9

11.0

BB/9

5.6

HR/9

0.7

IP

40.0

Zebby Matthews
Home

Zebby Matthews

RHP8-8

ERA

4.82

WHIP

1.30

K/9

7.7

BB/9

2.8

HR/9

1.6

IP

104.2

Stadium & Conditions

Target FieldPF 1.01 โ€” Neutralgrass

LF

339'

CF

404'

RF

328'

80ยฐF

8 mph

SE

Partly Cloudy

Humidity

74%

Neutral Conditions

- Warm (80ยฐF) โ€” favorable hitting conditions

Exposed to weather; cold spring/fall games. Wind can blow out to RF.

Team Comparison

CHW
MIN
4.8
R/G
4.5
0.238
AVG
0.246
0.730
OPS
0.723
0.410
SLG
0.405
180
HR
157
4.14
ERA
4.68
1.31
WHIP
1.39
8.5
K/9
8.5

NRFI Quick Take

Lean YRFI

At least one pitcher with ERA above 4.50 โ€” elevated scoring risk.

Full NRFI Analysis โ†’