All Matchups

Rays

TB (1-2)

-107

Guardians

CLE (2-1)

-104
8:00 PM ET|Tropicana Field
50%
Win Probability
50%

The Read

The market prices this close to a coin flip (Rays 50%) โ€” a game to attack through props and the total, not the side.

Run total sits at 6.5, a low-scoring script.

The Rays carry the pitching edge โ€” 3.10 ERA / 1.09 WHIP versus 4.58 the other way.

Both lineups run close in output โ€” 4.2 runs/game (TB) and 4.5 (CLE).

Composed from the market line and 2026 team & probable-pitcher stats โ€” no projections.

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Nick Martinez
Away

Nick Martinez

RHP15-6

ERA

3.10

WHIP

1.09

K/9

5.5

BB/9

1.3

HR/9

1.1

IP

180.0

Shawn Armstrong
Home

Shawn Armstrong

RHP2-1

ERA

4.58

WHIP

1.39

K/9

8.7

BB/9

4.8

HR/9

1.0

IP

35.1

Stadium & Conditions

Tropicana FieldPF 0.93 โ€” Pitcher-friendlyDometurf

LF

315'

CF

404'

RF

322'

79ยฐF

6 mph

NW

Cloudy

Humidity

87%

Neutral Conditions

- Indoor/dome โ€” controlled environment

Indoor dome โ€” weather irrelevant. Catwalks can interfere with fly balls. Artificial turf.

Team Comparison

TB
CLE
4.2
R/G
4.5
0.239
AVG
0.258
0.696
OPS
0.728
0.380
SLG
0.402
162
HR
169
3.77
ERA
3.70
1.26
WHIP
1.14
9.6
K/9
8.3

NRFI Quick Take

Lean YRFI

At least one pitcher with ERA above 4.50 โ€” elevated scoring risk.

Full NRFI Analysis โ†’