NRFI Picks — Track Record

Every No Run First Inning pick we published, graded against the box score. Picks are stored before first pitch and can’t be edited after; results are graded automatically. Toss-ups carry no lean, so they count as pushes rather than disappearing.

Strong NRFI

41-37

52.6% went scoreless

All leans

161-168

48.9% of decided picks

League base rate

48.8%

of the last 213 first innings were scoreless

By confidence tier

A pick’s tier is set by its NRFI score before the game. Read the last column against the league base rate above — that gap is the whole product.

Tier	Picks	Record	Scoreless 1st
Strong NRFI	78	41-37	52.6%
Lean NRFI	167	77-90	46.1%
Toss-up	214	214 pushes	51.9%
Lean YRFI	66	36-30	45.5%
Strong YRFI	18	7-11	61.1%

543 graded picks since Aug 14, 2026. Small samples move fast — a tier with under ~30 picks is a direction, not a verdict.

Daily boards

Each day’s board is a permanent page — what we said, then what happened.

Today’s board is live

Every game scored 0–100 with the pitcher splits, weather and reasoning behind it.

See tonight’s NRFI picks →