Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMLB Analytics

First Inning Run Predictions

League base rate: NRFI has hit 50% of the last 404 games (30d).

How this score has actually done

Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 52.6% across 38 graded games, against a league base rate of 50.5%. Full record by tier.

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15 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

0
Strong NRFI
3
Lean NRFI
9
Toss-up
3
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
TEXTEXatSEASEA
O/U 8
9:40 PM
T-Mobile ParkPF 0.95RetractableTEX NRFI 78%SEA NRFI 63%
Cal Quantrill
AwayCal Quantrill
ERA
2.79
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.07
K/9
6.8
Bryce Miller
HomeBryce Miller
ERA
4.01
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.11
K/9
8.7
72
Lean NRFI
  • Cal Quantrill has elite ERA (2.79) — strong NRFI signal
  • TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (32/41)
NRFI+120
YRFI-160
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COLCOLatNYYNYY
O/U 7.5
7:05 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.07COL NRFI 76%NYY NRFI 93%
Gabriel Hughes
AwayGabriel Hughes
ERA
6.19
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.43
K/9
7.2
Cam Schlittler
HomeCam Schlittler
ERA
2.04
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.94
K/9
11.0
69
Lean NRFI
  • Cam Schlittler has elite ERA (2.04) — strong NRFI signal
  • COL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (29/38)
  • NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 93% of games (37/40)
  • Gabriel Hughes ERA 6.19 — elevated run risk
NRFI+140
YRFI-190
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ARIARIatKCKC
O/U 9.5
7:40 PM
Kauffman StadiumPF 0.97ARI NRFI 78%KC NRFI 65%
Corbin Burnes
AwayCorbin Burnes
ERA
—
1st Inn
—
WHIP
—
K/9
—
Michael Wacha
HomeMichael Wacha
ERA
3.36
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
7.3
61
Lean NRFI
  • ARI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (32/41)
  • Elevated game total (9.5) — more run potential
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
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CINCINatLADLAD
O/U 8
10:10 PM
Dodger StadiumPF 0.97CIN NRFI 71%LAD NRFI 73%
Nick Lodolo
AwayNick Lodolo
ERA
5.08
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.52
K/9
7.3
Tarik Skubal
HomeTarik Skubal
ERA
2.86
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.98
K/9
10.8
59
Toss-up
  • Tarik Skubal has elite ERA (2.86) — strong NRFI signal
  • CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (30/42)
  • LAD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • Nick Lodolo ERA 5.08 — elevated run risk
  • Nick Lodolo high WHIP (1.52) means more baserunners
NRFI+150
YRFI-205
View on DraftKings
CLECLEatBALBAL
O/U 8
6:35 PM
Camden YardsPF 1.04CLE NRFI 65%BAL NRFI 70%
Tanner Bibee
AwayTanner Bibee
ERA
4.06
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.18
K/9
7.1
Brandon Young
HomeBrandon Young
ERA
3.42
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.31
K/9
7.2
55
Toss-up
  • BAL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
NRFI+130
YRFI-175
View on DraftKings
STLSTLatSFSF
O/U 7.5
9:45 PM
Oracle ParkPF 0.9288°FSTL NRFI 74%SF NRFI 64%
Quinn Mathews
AwayQuinn Mathews
ERA
4.38
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.58
K/9
8.8
Landen Roupp
HomeLanden Roupp
ERA
4.17
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.29
K/9
8.5
55
Toss-up
  • STL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (31/42)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
  • Quinn Mathews high WHIP (1.58) means more baserunners
NRFI+110
YRFI-155
View on DraftKings
LAALAAatBOSBOS
O/U 7.5
6:45 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0870°FLAA NRFI 68%BOS NRFI 70%
Reid Detmers
AwayReid Detmers
ERA
3.44
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.06
K/9
10.1
Patrick Sandoval
HomePatrick Sandoval
ERA
4.41
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.73
K/9
9.2
53
Toss-up
  • Patrick Sandoval high WHIP (1.73) means more baserunners
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.08) favors YRFI
NRFI+100
YRFI-135
View on DraftKings
WSHWSHatSDSD
O/U 8
9:40 PM
Petco ParkPF 0.93WSH NRFI 86%SD NRFI 70%
Riley Cornelio
AwayRiley Cornelio
ERA
5.96
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.81
K/9
9.1
Casey Mize
HomeCasey Mize
ERA
3.64
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.12
K/9
7.9
53
Toss-up
  • WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 86% of games (36/42)
  • SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
  • Riley Cornelio ERA 5.96 — elevated run risk
  • Riley Cornelio high WHIP (1.81) means more baserunners
  • WSH batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+130
YRFI-175
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NYMNYMatMIAMIA
O/U 8
6:40 PM
LoanDepot ParkPF 0.91Retractable84°FNYM NRFI 65%MIA NRFI 78%
Sean Manaea
AwaySean Manaea
ERA
4.70
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
8.6
Sandy Alcantara
HomeSandy Alcantara
ERA
3.54
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.19
K/9
6.5
52
Toss-up
  • MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (32/41)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.91) supports NRFI
  • Sean Manaea ERA 4.70 — elevated run risk
NRFI+110
YRFI-150
View on DraftKings
PITPITatCHWCHW
O/U 8.5
7:40 PM
Guaranteed Rate FieldPF 1.04PIT NRFI 78%CHW NRFI 66%
Bubba Chandler
AwayBubba Chandler
ERA
4.30
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
8.0
Sean Burke
HomeSean Burke
ERA
3.20
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.14
K/9
9.7
51
Toss-up
  • PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (31/40)
NRFI+105
YRFI-140
View on DraftKings
CHCCHCatMILMIL
O/U 7
7:40 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02RetractableCHC NRFI 67%MIL NRFI 69%
David Peterson
AwayDavid Peterson
ERA
5.39
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.56
K/9
8.0
Jacob Misiorowski
HomeJacob Misiorowski
ERA
1.97
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.79
K/9
13.2
46
Toss-up
  • David Peterson ERA 5.39 — elevated run risk
  • David Peterson high WHIP (1.56) means more baserunners
  • CHC batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • MIL batting lineup scores 5.0 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • Jacob Misiorowski has elite ERA (1.97) — strong NRFI signal
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI+135
YRFI-180
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TORTORatOAKOAK
O/U 9
9:40 PM
Oakland ColiseumPF 0.9291°FTOR NRFI 76%OAK NRFI 71%
José Soriano
AwayJosé Soriano
ERA
3.52
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.29
K/9
8.7
Jack Perkins
HomeJack Perkins
ERA
6.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.54
K/9
10.6
43
Toss-up
  • Jack Perkins ERA 6.50 — elevated run risk
  • Jack Perkins high WHIP (1.54) means more baserunners
  • Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
  • TOR batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (31/41)
  • OAK batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (30/42)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
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MINMINatDETDET
O/U 8.5
6:40 PM
Comerica ParkPF 0.9681°FMIN NRFI 64%DET NRFI 65%
Dean Kremer
AwayDean Kremer
ERA
5.81
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.31
K/9
8.9
Drew Anderson
HomeDrew Anderson
ERA
3.73
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.30
K/9
9.9
39
Lean YRFI
  • Dean Kremer ERA 5.81 — elevated run risk
NRFI+100
YRFI-140
View on DraftKings
HOUHOUatPHIPHI
O/U 8.5
6:40 PM
Citizens Bank ParkPF 1.0681°FHOU NRFI 69%PHI NRFI 64%
Hayden Wesneski
AwayHayden Wesneski
ERA
3.18
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.06
K/9
7.5
Andrew Painter
HomeAndrew Painter
ERA
5.55
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
7.8
35
Lean YRFI
  • Andrew Painter ERA 5.55 — elevated run risk
NRFI+120
YRFI-160
View on DraftKings
TBTBatATLATL
O/U 8.5
7:15 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.01TB NRFI 75%ATL NRFI 76%
Freddy Peralta
AwayFreddy Peralta
ERA
4.96
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
8.6
AJ Smith-Shawver
HomeAJ Smith-Shawver
ERA
7.13
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.75
K/9
7.6
28
Lean YRFI
  • Freddy Peralta ERA 4.96 — elevated run risk
  • AJ Smith-Shawver ERA 7.13 — elevated run risk
  • AJ Smith-Shawver high WHIP (1.75) means more baserunners
NRFI+120
YRFI-160
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