Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMLB Analytics

First Inning Run Predictions

League base rate: NRFI has hit 51% of the last 389 games (30d).

How this score has actually done

The score has not separated yet. Strong NRFI 52.6% (38 games). Lean NRFI 50% (98 games). The league base rate is 51.2%, so a top-tier game has been close to any other game. Read the ranking as the reasoning behind it, not as an edge over the market. Full record by tier.

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15 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

0
Strong NRFI
4
Lean NRFI
8
Toss-up
3
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
HOUHOUatPHIPHI
O/U 8
6:40 PM
Citizens Bank ParkPF 1.0669°FHOU NRFI 69%PHI NRFI 67%
Hunter Brown
AwayHunter Brown
ERA
3.31
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.30
K/9
9.6
Cristopher Sánchez
HomeCristopher Sánchez
ERA
2.58
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.20
K/9
10.3
65
Lean NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Hunter Brown 3.31, Cristopher Sánchez 2.58) — strong NRFI
NRFI+110
YRFI-145
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STLSTLatSFSF
O/U 8
3:45 PM
Oracle ParkPF 0.9265°FSTL NRFI 76%SF NRFI 62%
Andre Pallante
AwayAndre Pallante
ERA
3.51
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.24
K/9
6.3
Blade Tidwell
HomeBlade Tidwell
ERA
4.43
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.24
K/9
7.6
63
Lean NRFI
  • STL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (32/42)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
NRFI+130
YRFI-180
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CHCCHCatMILMIL
O/U 7.5
7:40 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable69°FCHC NRFI 64%MIL NRFI 67%
Kevin Gausman
AwayKevin Gausman
ERA
4.38
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.26
K/9
9.2
Logan Henderson
HomeLogan Henderson
ERA
2.48
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.79
K/9
10.0
63
Lean NRFI
  • Logan Henderson has elite ERA (2.48) — strong NRFI signal
  • CHC batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • MIL batting lineup scores 5.0 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+110
YRFI-150
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TORTORatOAKOAK
O/U 9
3:05 PM
Oakland ColiseumPF 0.9266°FTOR NRFI 76%OAK NRFI 71%
Braydon Fisher
AwayBraydon Fisher
ERA
3.20
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.24
K/9
8.7
Brady Basso
HomeBrady Basso
ERA
4.32
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.41
K/9
6.5
61
Lean NRFI
  • TOR batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (31/41)
  • OAK batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (30/42)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
  • Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
NRFI+145
YRFI-200
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CLECLEatBALBAL
O/U 9
6:35 PM
Camden YardsPF 1.0467°FCLE NRFI 63%BAL NRFI 70%
Foster Griffin
AwayFoster Griffin
ERA
3.26
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.14
K/9
8.0
Shane Baz
HomeShane Baz
ERA
3.91
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.33
K/9
8.0
54
Toss-up
  • BAL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
NRFI+115
YRFI-160
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CINCINatLADLAD
O/U 8.5
10:10 PM
Dodger StadiumPF 0.9776°FCIN NRFI 71%LAD NRFI 70%
Rhett Lowder
AwayRhett Lowder
ERA
5.43
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.49
K/9
7.0
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
HomeYoshinobu Yamamoto
ERA
2.67
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.90
K/9
8.8
54
Toss-up
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto has elite ERA (2.67) — strong NRFI signal
  • CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (30/42)
  • LAD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Rhett Lowder ERA 5.43 — elevated run risk
NRFI+165
YRFI-225
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PITPITatCHWCHW
O/U 8.5
7:40 PM
Guaranteed Rate FieldPF 1.0471°FPIT NRFI 75%CHW NRFI 66%
Lake Bachar
AwayLake Bachar
ERA
3.59
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.08
K/9
9.3
Davis Martin
HomeDavis Martin
ERA
4.13
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.32
K/9
7.8
51
Toss-up
  • PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
NRFI+110
YRFI-150
View on DraftKings
COLCOLatNYYNYY
O/U 9
7:05 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0764°FCOL NRFI 76%NYY NRFI 90%
Tomoyuki Sugano
AwayTomoyuki Sugano
ERA
5.19
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.35
K/9
5.4
Will Warren
HomeWill Warren
ERA
4.16
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.38
K/9
8.8
45
Toss-up
  • Tomoyuki Sugano ERA 5.19 — elevated run risk
  • Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
  • COL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (29/38)
  • NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 90% of games (36/40)
NRFI+160
YRFI-220
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WSHWSHatSDSD
O/U 8
4:10 PM
Petco ParkPF 0.9382°FWSH NRFI 86%SD NRFI 70%
Jackson Kent
AwayJackson Kent
ERA
5.55
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.68
K/9
7.8
Walker Buehler
HomeWalker Buehler
ERA
4.56
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
7.7
44
Toss-up
  • Jackson Kent ERA 5.55 — elevated run risk
  • Walker Buehler ERA 4.56 — elevated run risk
  • Jackson Kent high WHIP (1.68) means more baserunners
  • WSH batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 86% of games (36/42)
  • SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
NRFI+140
YRFI-195
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MINMINatDETDET
O/U 8.5
1:10 PM
Comerica ParkPF 0.9671°FMIN NRFI 62%DET NRFI 65%
Zebby Matthews
AwayZebby Matthews
ERA
4.69
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.25
K/9
7.5
Keider Montero
HomeKeider Montero
ERA
3.52
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.03
K/9
6.0
43
Toss-up
  • Zebby Matthews ERA 4.69 — elevated run risk
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
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ARIARIatKCKC
O/U 8.5
7:40 PM
Kauffman StadiumPF 0.9781°FARI NRFI 78%KC NRFI 65%
Zac Gallen
AwayZac Gallen
ERA
6.34
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.56
K/9
5.6
Daniel Lynch IV
HomeDaniel Lynch IV
ERA
3.51
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
6.2
41
Toss-up
  • Zac Gallen ERA 6.34 — elevated run risk
  • Zac Gallen high WHIP (1.56) means more baserunners
  • ARI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (32/41)
NRFI+115
YRFI-160
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NYMNYMatMIAMIA
O/U 8.5
6:40 PM
LoanDepot ParkPF 0.91Retractable77°FNYM NRFI 63%MIA NRFI 78%
Robert Stock
AwayRobert Stock
ERA
5.81
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.75
K/9
8.5
Janson Junk
HomeJanson Junk
ERA
4.00
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.28
K/9
6.2
37
Lean YRFI
  • Robert Stock ERA 5.81 — elevated run risk
  • Robert Stock high WHIP (1.75) means more baserunners
  • NYM batters scored in the 1st inning 7/10 recent games — hot starters
  • MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (32/41)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.91) supports NRFI
NRFI+120
YRFI-160
View on DraftKings
LAALAAatBOSBOS
O/U 9
6:45 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0857°FLAA NRFI 68%BOS NRFI 70%
Ryan Johnson
AwayRyan Johnson
ERA
5.17
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.39
K/9
6.7
Jake Bennett
HomeJake Bennett
ERA
3.34
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.02
K/9
7.3
37
Lean YRFI
  • Ryan Johnson ERA 5.17 — elevated run risk
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.08) favors YRFI
  • Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
NRFI+135
YRFI-185
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TEXTEXatSEASEA
O/U 8
4:10 PM
T-Mobile ParkPF 0.95Retractable55°FTEX NRFI 78%SEA NRFI 63%
Cody Bradford
AwayCody Bradford
ERA
4.45
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.58
K/9
4.8
Kade Anderson
HomeKade Anderson
ERA
5.40
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.47
K/9
6.6
32
Lean YRFI
  • Kade Anderson ERA 5.40 — elevated run risk
  • Cody Bradford high WHIP (1.58) means more baserunners
  • TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (32/41)
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
TBTBatATLATL
O/U 8.5
7:15 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.0167°FTB NRFI 73%ATL NRFI 73%
Griffin Jax
AwayGriffin Jax
ERA
3.82
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.27
K/9
9.6
TBD
HomeTBD
56.3
Toss-up
  • TB batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (30/41)
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
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