First Inning Run Predictions
League base rate: NRFI has hit 52% of the last 409 games (30d).
How this score has actually done
The score has not separated yet. Strong NRFI 52.6% (38 games). Lean NRFI 49.5% (103 games). The league base rate is 51.6%, so a top-tier game has been close to any other game. Read the ranking as the reasoning behind it, not as an edge over the market. Full record by tier.
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5 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run
Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather
1
Strong NRFI
2
Lean NRFI
1
Toss-up
1
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
TEXat
SEAO/U 6.5
4:10 PM
T-Mobile ParkPF 0.95Retractable60°FTEX NRFI 81%SEA NRFI 63%
AwayJacob deGrom
ERA
3.96
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.12
K/9
10.9
HomeLogan Gilbert
ERA
3.71
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.07
K/9
9.6
77
Strong NRFI- TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 81% of games (33/41)
- Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI-120
YRFI-115
PITat
CHWO/U 7.5
7:40 PM
Guaranteed Rate FieldPF 1.0472°FPIT NRFI 75%CHW NRFI 68%
AwayJared Jones
ERA
4.46
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.23
K/9
10.5
HomeHagen Smith
ERA
0.56
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.94
K/9
12.9
74
Lean NRFI- Hagen Smith has elite ERA (0.56) — strong NRFI signal
- PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
NRFI-115
YRFI-120
TBat
ATLO/U 8.5
12:15 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.0183°FTB NRFI 73%ATL NRFI 73%
AwayNick Martinez
ERA
3.04
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
5.3
HomeMartín Pérez
ERA
3.25
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.27
K/9
6.8
64
Lean NRFI- Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Nick Martinez 3.04, Martín Pérez 3.25) — strong NRFI
- TB batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
- ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (30/41)
NRFI+140
YRFI-190
COLat
NYYO/U 8.5
7:05 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0782°F9mphCOL NRFI 76%NYY NRFI 90%
AwayRyan Feltner
ERA
5.91
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.58
K/9
6.8
HomeMax Fried
ERA
2.73
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.99
K/9
8.2
54
Toss-up- Max Fried has elite ERA (2.73) — strong NRFI signal
- COL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (29/38)
- NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 90% of games (36/40)
- Ryan Feltner ERA 5.91 — elevated run risk
- Ryan Feltner high WHIP (1.58) means more baserunners
NRFI+155
YRFI-210
HOUat
PHIO/U 8.5
1:05 PM
Citizens Bank ParkPF 1.0684°FHOU NRFI 72%PHI NRFI 69%
AwayCristian Javier
ERA
5.98
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.55
K/9
9.1
HomeZack Wheeler
ERA
3.23
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.08
K/9
10.8
37
Lean YRFI- Cristian Javier ERA 5.98 — elevated run risk
- Cristian Javier high WHIP (1.55) means more baserunners
- HOU batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
NRFI+130
YRFI-175