Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMLB Analytics

First Inning Run Predictions

League base rate: NRFI has hit 52% of the last 399 games (30d).

How this score has actually done

Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 53.8% across 39 graded games, against a league base rate of 51.6%. Full record by tier.

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15 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

2
Strong NRFI
5
Lean NRFI
5
Toss-up
3
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
HOUHOUatTBTB
O/U 7.5
7:10 PM
Tropicana FieldPF 0.93DomeHOU NRFI 72%TB NRFI 73%
Miguel Ullola
AwayMiguel Ullola
ERA
3.86
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.86
K/9
12.9
Drew Rasmussen
HomeDrew Rasmussen
ERA
2.88
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.91
K/9
9.2
96
Strong NRFI
  • Drew Rasmussen has elite ERA (2.88) — strong NRFI signal
  • HOU batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
  • TB batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (30/41)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
  • Fixed dome — controlled environment favors pitching
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
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SDSDatSFSF
O/U 8
10:15 PM
Oracle ParkPF 0.9258°FSD NRFI 70%SF NRFI 59%
Robbie Ray
AwayRobbie Ray
ERA
3.39
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
7.5
Anthony Molina
HomeAnthony Molina
ERA
2.79
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.88
K/9
7.0
82
Strong NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Robbie Ray 3.39, Anthony Molina 2.79) — strong NRFI
  • SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Foggy, 58°F — suppresses offense
NRFI+105
YRFI-145
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PHIPHIatATLATL
O/U 7
7:15 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.0182°FPHI NRFI 72%ATL NRFI 76%
Aaron Nola
AwayAaron Nola
ERA
4.76
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
9.4
Chris Sale
HomeChris Sale
ERA
2.10
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.01
K/9
11.0
71
Lean NRFI
  • Chris Sale has elite ERA (2.10) — strong NRFI signal
  • PHI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
  • ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (31/41)
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI+130
YRFI-175
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CLECLEatMINMIN
O/U 7.5
8:10 PM
Target FieldPF 1.0172°F12mphCLE NRFI 60%MIN NRFI 64%
Parker Messick
AwayParker Messick
ERA
2.53
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.04
K/9
9.3
Taj Bradley
HomeTaj Bradley
ERA
3.95
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.26
K/9
10.4
68
Lean NRFI
  • Parker Messick has elite ERA (2.53) — strong NRFI signal
NRFI-105
YRFI-130
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NYMNYMatNYYNYY
O/U 8
7:05 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0773°FNYM NRFI 67%NYY NRFI 88%
Nolan McLean
AwayNolan McLean
ERA
3.06
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.14
K/9
10.0
Carlos Rodón
HomeCarlos Rodón
ERA
3.09
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.17
K/9
9.8
67
Lean NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Nolan McLean 3.06, Carlos Rodón 3.09) — strong NRFI
  • NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 88% of games (35/40)
NRFI+110
YRFI-150
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LAALAAatWSHWSH
O/U 7.5
6:45 PM
Nationals ParkPF 0.9972°FLAA NRFI 72%WSH NRFI 85%
Yusei Kikuchi
AwayYusei Kikuchi
ERA
4.96
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.47
K/9
9.0
Cade Cavalli
HomeCade Cavalli
ERA
3.12
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.18
K/9
10.5
65
Lean NRFI
  • LAA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
  • WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 85% of games (35/41)
  • Yusei Kikuchi ERA 4.96 — elevated run risk
  • WSH batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+110
YRFI-150
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PITPITatCHCCHC
O/U 8
2:20 PM
Wrigley FieldPF 1.0567°FPIT NRFI 75%CHC NRFI 66%
Wilber Dotel
AwayWilber Dotel
ERA
4.41
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.32
K/9
9.4
Shota Imanaga
HomeShota Imanaga
ERA
3.91
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.12
K/9
8.8
50
Toss-up
  • PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
  • CHC batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
COLCOLatDETDET
O/U 8
6:40 PM
Comerica ParkPF 0.9664°FCOL NRFI 77%DET NRFI 62%
Mason Adams
AwayMason Adams
ERA
3.95
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.61
K/9
11.2
Framber Valdez
HomeFramber Valdez
ERA
4.17
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
6.8
47
Toss-up
  • Mason Adams high WHIP (1.61) means more baserunners
  • COL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 77% of games (30/39)
NRFI+125
YRFI-165
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CHWCHWatSTLSTL
O/U 8
8:15 PM
Busch StadiumPF 0.9971°FCHW NRFI 71%STL NRFI 76%
Anthony Kay
AwayAnthony Kay
ERA
4.47
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
7.4
Matthew Liberatore
HomeMatthew Liberatore
ERA
5.57
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.47
K/9
9.3
47
Toss-up
  • Matthew Liberatore ERA 5.57 — elevated run risk
  • CHW batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (29/41)
  • STL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (31/41)
NRFI+130
YRFI-175
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SEASEAatOAKOAK
O/U 10
9:40 PM
Oakland ColiseumPF 0.9260°FSEA NRFI 63%OAK NRFI 73%
George Kirby
AwayGeorge Kirby
ERA
4.18
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
7.5
Jeffrey Springs
HomeJeffrey Springs
ERA
6.02
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.45
K/9
7.2
47
Toss-up
  • Jeffrey Springs ERA 6.02 — elevated run risk
  • High game total (10) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
  • OAK batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (30/41)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 60°F — suppresses offense
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
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CINCINatMILMIL
O/U 8
7:45 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable67°FCIN NRFI 71%MIL NRFI 66%
Andrew Abbott
AwayAndrew Abbott
ERA
4.43
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.42
K/9
7.1
Dustin May
HomeDustin May
ERA
4.69
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.32
K/9
8.6
39
Lean YRFI
  • Dustin May ERA 4.69 — elevated run risk
  • MIL batting lineup scores 5.0 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (30/42)
NRFI+130
YRFI-175
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BALBALatTORTOR
O/U 8
7:07 PM
Rogers CentrePF 1.03Retractable62°FBAL NRFI 72%TOR NRFI 75%
Chris Bassitt
AwayChris Bassitt
ERA
4.96
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.58
K/9
6.4
Max Scherzer
HomeMax Scherzer
ERA
6.03
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
6.9
34
Lean YRFI
  • Chris Bassitt ERA 4.96 — elevated run risk
  • Max Scherzer ERA 6.03 — elevated run risk
  • Chris Bassitt high WHIP (1.58) means more baserunners
  • BAL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
  • TOR batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
NRFI+140
YRFI-195
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KCKCatBOSBOS
O/U 8.5
7:10 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0870°F10mphKC NRFI 68%BOS NRFI 69%
Seth Lugo
AwaySeth Lugo
ERA
5.04
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.44
K/9
6.7
Sonny Gray
HomeSonny Gray
ERA
2.69
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.16
K/9
8.1
33
Lean YRFI
  • Seth Lugo ERA 5.04 — elevated run risk
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.08) favors YRFI
  • Sonny Gray has elite ERA (2.69) — strong NRFI signal
NRFI+130
YRFI-180
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LADLADatMIAMIA
O/U 7.5
7:10 PM
LoanDepot ParkPF 0.91Retractable77°F12mphLAD NRFI 70%MIA NRFI 80%
TBD
AwayTBD
Ryan Gusto
HomeRyan Gusto
ERA
4.23
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.41
K/9
7.7
61.9
Lean NRFI
  • LAD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (32/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.91) supports NRFI
  • Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
NRFI-130
YRFI-105
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TEXTEXatARIARI
O/U 9
9:40 PM
Chase FieldPF 1.05Retractable89°FTEX NRFI 83%ARI NRFI 80%
TBD
AwayTBD
TBD
HomeTBD
55
Toss-up
  • TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 83% of games (34/41)
  • ARI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (32/40)
  • Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
NRFI+135
YRFI-185
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