First Inning Run Predictions
League base rate: NRFI has hit 50% of the last 399 games (30d).
How this score has actually done
Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 53.7% across 41 graded games, against a league base rate of 50.4%. Full record by tier.
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15 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run
Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather
2
Strong NRFI
4
Lean NRFI
8
Toss-up
1
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
SDat
SFO/U 8
4:05 PM
Oracle ParkPF 0.9257°F8mphSD NRFI 70%SF NRFI 56%
AwayMichael King
ERA
3.00
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.17
K/9
7.7
HomeCesar Perdomo
ERA
0.90
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.80
K/9
7.2
82
Strong NRFI- Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Michael King 3.00, Cesar Perdomo 0.90) — strong NRFI
- SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
- Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
- Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 57°F — suppresses offense
NRFI+100
YRFI-140
LADat
MIAO/U 8
4:10 PM
LoanDepot ParkPF 0.91Retractable85°FLAD NRFI 73%MIA NRFI 83%
AwayTyler Glasnow
ERA
3.12
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.88
K/9
10.9
HomeTyler Phillips
ERA
3.51
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.33
K/9
7.3
81
Strong NRFI- LAD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
- MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 83% of games (33/40)
- Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.91) supports NRFI
NRFI-130
YRFI-105
HOUat
TBO/U 7.5
6:10 PM
Tropicana FieldPF 0.93DomeHOU NRFI 74%TB NRFI 73%
AwayPeter Lambert
ERA
3.67
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.23
K/9
8.8
HomeIan Seymour
ERA
4.33
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.16
K/9
10.8
73
Lean NRFI- HOU batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (29/39)
- TB batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (30/41)
- Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
- Fixed dome — controlled environment favors pitching
NRFI+130
YRFI-180
LAAat
WSHO/U 8
4:05 PM
Nationals ParkPF 0.9975°F9mphLAA NRFI 69%WSH NRFI 88%
AwayWalbert Ureña
ERA
2.74
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.21
K/9
8.5
HomeAndrew Alvarez
ERA
3.60
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.32
K/9
8.6
69
Lean NRFI- Walbert Ureña has elite ERA (2.74) — strong NRFI signal
- WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 88% of games (36/41)
- WSH batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+100
YRFI-135
CHWat
STLO/U 8.5
7:15 PM
Busch StadiumPF 0.9972°FCHW NRFI 68%STL NRFI 73%
AwaySean Newcomb
ERA
2.71
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.13
K/9
8.0
HomeKyle Leahy
ERA
3.41
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.33
K/9
8.4
67
Lean NRFI- Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Sean Newcomb 2.71, Kyle Leahy 3.41) — strong NRFI
- STL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (30/41)
NRFI+130
YRFI-175
NYMat
NYYO/U 8
1:35 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0771°FNYM NRFI 68%NYY NRFI 85%
AwayZac Thornton
ERA
3.53
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.19
K/9
6.9
HomeGerrit Cole
ERA
3.41
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.09
K/9
9.2
60
Lean NRFI- NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 85% of games (34/40)
NRFI+145
YRFI-200
PITat
CHCO/U 9
2:20 PM
Wrigley FieldPF 1.0570°FPIT NRFI 73%CHC NRFI 68%
AwayPaul Skenes
ERA
3.83
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.15
K/9
10.5
HomeClay Holmes
ERA
2.83
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.12
K/9
6.8
58
Toss-up- Clay Holmes has elite ERA (2.83) — strong NRFI signal
- PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
- CHC batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
- Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
NRFI-110
YRFI-125
BALat
TORO/U 8.5
3:07 PM
Rogers CentrePF 1.03Retractable66°FBAL NRFI 69%TOR NRFI 75%
AwayKyle Bradish
ERA
3.91
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.42
K/9
8.3
HomeSpencer Miles
ERA
2.77
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.05
K/9
8.3
57
Toss-up- Spencer Miles has elite ERA (2.77) — strong NRFI signal
- TOR batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
NRFI+135
YRFI-180
TEXat
ARIO/U 8.5
8:10 PM
Chase FieldPF 1.05Retractable84°FTEX NRFI 83%ARI NRFI 83%
AwayKumar Rocker
ERA
4.61
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.44
K/9
8.5
HomeBrandon Pfaadt
ERA
3.53
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.15
K/9
5.9
55
Toss-up- TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 83% of games (34/41)
- ARI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 83% of games (33/40)
- Kumar Rocker ERA 4.61 — elevated run risk
NRFI+130
YRFI-180
SEAat
OAKO/U 9.5
9:40 PM
Oakland ColiseumPF 0.9257°FSEA NRFI 60%OAK NRFI 71%
AwayBryan Woo
ERA
4.03
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.06
K/9
9.1
HomeGage Jump
ERA
5.12
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.49
K/9
9.9
55
Toss-up- OAK batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (29/41)
- Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
- Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 57°F — suppresses offense
- Gage Jump ERA 5.12 — elevated run risk
- Elevated game total (9.5) — more run potential
NRFI-110
YRFI-125
KCat
BOSO/U 8.5
4:10 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0865°FKC NRFI 65%BOS NRFI 69%
AwayRandy Dobnak
ERA
2.54
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.32
K/9
6.1
HomeRanger Suarez
ERA
3.44
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.22
K/9
8.4
51
Toss-up- Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Randy Dobnak 2.54, Ranger Suarez 3.44) — strong NRFI
- Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.08) favors YRFI
NRFI+135
YRFI-180
CLEat
MINO/U 8.5
4:10 PM
Target FieldPF 1.0163°F12mphCLE NRFI 62%MIN NRFI 64%
AwayDaniel Espino
ERA
2.70
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.30
K/9
16.2
HomeConnor Prielipp
ERA
5.25
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
9.7
46
Toss-up- Connor Prielipp ERA 5.25 — elevated run risk
- Daniel Espino has elite ERA (2.70) — strong NRFI signal
NRFI+105
YRFI-140
COLat
DETO/U 8.5
1:10 PM
Comerica ParkPF 0.9671°FCOL NRFI 77%DET NRFI 64%
AwayTanner Gordon
ERA
5.40
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.43
K/9
7.3
HomeAndrew Sears
ERA
4.38
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.22
K/9
5.8
40
Toss-up- Tanner Gordon ERA 5.40 — elevated run risk
- COL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 77% of games (30/39)
NRFI+140
YRFI-195
PHIat
ATLO/U 8
7:15 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.0172°FPHI NRFI 72%ATL NRFI 74%
AwayTBD
HomeTyler Mahle
ERA
4.05
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.27
K/9
8.5
59.1
Toss-up- PHI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
- ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (31/42)
- Rain — wet conditions favor pitchers
- Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
NRFI-110
YRFI-125
CINat
MILO/U 8.5
7:10 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable71°F10mphCIN NRFI 73%MIL NRFI 63%
AwayBrady Singer
ERA
5.03
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.47
K/9
7.4
HomeTBD
38.1
Lean YRFI- Brady Singer ERA 5.03 — elevated run risk
- MIL batting lineup scores 5.2 R/G — high 1st inning threat
- Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
- CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (30/41)
NRFI+135
YRFI-185