First Inning Run Predictions
League base rate: NRFI has hit 48% of the last 405 games (30d).
How this score has actually done
Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 50% across 46 graded games, against a league base rate of 47.9%. Full record by tier.
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9 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run
Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather
0
Strong NRFI
3
Lean NRFI
4
Toss-up
1
Lean YRFI
1
Strong YRFI
BOSat
TEXO/U 8
8:05 PM
Globe Life FieldPF 0.98Retractable93°FBOS NRFI 71%TEX NRFI 78%
AwaySonny Gray
ERA
2.76
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.17
K/9
8.0
HomeTyler Alexander
ERA
3.38
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.28
K/9
7.7
74
Lean NRFI- Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Sonny Gray 2.76, Tyler Alexander 3.38) — strong NRFI
- BOS batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (29/41)
- TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (31/40)
NRFI+105
YRFI-145
OAKat
TBO/U 7.5
1:10 PM
Tropicana FieldPF 0.93DomeOAK NRFI 70%TB NRFI 70%
AwayJeffrey Springs
ERA
5.93
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.45
K/9
7.0
HomeDrew Rasmussen
ERA
2.81
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.92
K/9
9.0
66
Lean NRFI- Drew Rasmussen has elite ERA (2.81) — strong NRFI signal
- OAK batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
- TB batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
- Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
- Fixed dome — controlled environment favors pitching
- Jeffrey Springs ERA 5.93 — elevated run risk
NRFI+145
YRFI-200
MINat
LAAO/U 7.5
9:38 PM
Angel StadiumPF 0.9773°FMIN NRFI 62%LAA NRFI 70%
AwayTaj Bradley
ERA
3.81
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.25
K/9
10.3
HomeWalbert Ureña
ERA
2.88
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.24
K/9
8.6
66
Lean NRFI- Walbert Ureña has elite ERA (2.88) — strong NRFI signal
- LAA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
NRFI-105
YRFI-130
PHIat
NYMO/U 8
7:15 PM
Citi FieldPF 0.9582°F8mphPHI NRFI 68%NYM NRFI 62%
AwayAaron Nola
ERA
4.69
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
9.2
HomeNolan McLean
ERA
3.24
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.18
K/9
9.9
53
Toss-up- Aaron Nola ERA 4.69 — elevated run risk
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
DETat
CHWO/U 8.5
7:40 PM
Guaranteed Rate FieldPF 1.0474°FDET NRFI 65%CHW NRFI 73%
AwayFramber Valdez
ERA
4.01
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
6.7
HomeErick Fedde
ERA
3.97
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
6.1
47
Toss-up- CHW batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (30/41)
NRFI+105
YRFI-145
MILat
PITO/U 8.5
12:37 PM
PNC ParkPF 0.9679°F9mphMIL NRFI 61%PIT NRFI 72%
AwayKyle Harrison
ERA
3.98
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.31
K/9
10.9
HomeWilber Dotel
ERA
4.84
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
9.2
41
Toss-up- Wilber Dotel ERA 4.84 — elevated run risk
- MIL batting lineup scores 5.2 R/G — high 1st inning threat
- PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
LADat
CINO/U 10
12:40 PM
Great American Ball ParkPF 1.0992°FLAD NRFI 75%CIN NRFI 78%
AwayJustin Wrobleski
ERA
3.78
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.16
K/9
7.5
HomeBrady Singer
ERA
5.38
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.51
K/9
7.5
30
Lean YRFI- Brady Singer ERA 5.38 — elevated run risk
- Brady Singer high WHIP (1.51) means more baserunners
- Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.09) favors YRFI
- High game total (10) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
NRFI+130
YRFI-175
SDat
COLO/U 10.5
3:10 PM
Coors FieldPF 1.2777°FSD NRFI 65%COL NRFI 75%
AwayMichael King
ERA
3.03
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.15
K/9
7.6
HomeTanner Gordon
ERA
5.55
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.48
K/9
7.5
23
Strong YRFI- Tanner Gordon ERA 5.55 — elevated run risk
- Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.27) favors YRFI
- High game total (10.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
- Hitter-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 77°F, 3mph wind — offense boost
NRFI+120
YRFI-165
KCat
HOUO/U 9
7:15 PM
Minute Maid ParkPF 1.02Retractable85°F10mphKC NRFI 64%HOU NRFI 69%
AwaySeth Lugo
ERA
4.99
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.45
K/9
6.9
HomeTBD
40.2
Toss-up- Seth Lugo ERA 4.99 — elevated run risk
- Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
- Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
NRFI+150
YRFI-205