Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMLB Analytics

First Inning Run Predictions

League base rate: NRFI has hit 48% of the last 384 games (30d).

How this score has actually done

Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 50% across 46 graded games, against a league base rate of 47.9%. Full record by tier.

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13 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

2
Strong NRFI
3
Lean NRFI
6
Toss-up
2
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
NYYNYYatARIARI
O/U 7.5
8:10 PM
Chase FieldPF 1.05Retractable81°FNYY NRFI 80%ARI NRFI 80%
Cam Schlittler
AwayCam Schlittler
ERA
1.95
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.90
K/9
11.1
Brandon Pfaadt
HomeBrandon Pfaadt
ERA
3.77
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.17
K/9
6.1
81
Strong NRFI
  • Cam Schlittler has elite ERA (1.95) — strong NRFI signal
  • NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (31/39)
  • ARI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (32/40)
NRFI-105
YRFI-130
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MIAMIAatSDSD
O/U 8
8:40 PM
Petco ParkPF 0.9367°FMIA NRFI 85%SD NRFI 68%
Eury Pérez
AwayEury Pérez
ERA
3.99
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.24
K/9
9.7
Casey Mize
HomeCasey Mize
ERA
3.69
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.14
K/9
7.8
75
Strong NRFI
  • MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 85% of games (34/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
NRFI+105
YRFI-140
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TORTORatTEXTEX
O/U 8
7:05 PM
Globe Life FieldPF 0.98Retractable85°F9mphTOR NRFI 70%TEX NRFI 78%
José Soriano
AwayJosé Soriano
ERA
3.56
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.27
K/9
8.4
Cal Quantrill
HomeCal Quantrill
ERA
2.90
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.05
K/9
6.7
73
Lean NRFI
  • Cal Quantrill has elite ERA (2.90) — strong NRFI signal
  • TOR batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (31/40)
NRFI+110
YRFI-150
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MINMINatLAALAA
O/U 7
9:38 PM
Angel StadiumPF 0.9766°FMIN NRFI 60%LAA NRFI 68%
Joe Ryan
AwayJoe Ryan
ERA
3.84
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.16
K/9
9.8
Reid Detmers
HomeReid Detmers
ERA
3.36
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.05
K/9
10.3
68
Lean NRFI
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
WSHWSHatSTLSTL
O/U 8.5
7:15 PM
Busch StadiumPF 0.9981°FWSH NRFI 82%STL NRFI 73%
Andrew Alvarez
AwayAndrew Alvarez
ERA
3.35
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.27
K/9
8.7
Michael McGreevy
HomeMichael McGreevy
ERA
3.83
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.24
K/9
6.3
61
Lean NRFI
  • WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 82% of games (32/39)
  • STL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • WSH batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
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ATLATLatHOUHOU
O/U 8.5
7:10 PM
Minute Maid ParkPF 1.02Retractable77°FATL NRFI 76%HOU NRFI 67%
Grant Holmes
AwayGrant Holmes
ERA
3.49
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.30
K/9
7.0
Hayden Wesneski
HomeHayden Wesneski
ERA
3.70
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.13
K/9
7.0
57
Toss-up
  • ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (31/41)
NRFI+140
YRFI-190
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KCKCatPITPIT
O/U 8
6:40 PM
PNC ParkPF 0.9661°FKC NRFI 63%PIT NRFI 72%
Noah Cameron
AwayNoah Cameron
ERA
3.84
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.19
K/9
8.1
Bubba Chandler
HomeBubba Chandler
ERA
4.28
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.35
K/9
8.1
52
Toss-up
  • PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
NRFI+105
YRFI-145
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DETDETatCHWCHW
O/U 8
2:10 PM
Guaranteed Rate FieldPF 1.0465°F11mphDET NRFI 63%CHW NRFI 69%
Jackson Jobe
AwayJackson Jobe
ERA
3.89
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.27
K/9
8.8
Sean Burke
HomeSean Burke
ERA
3.47
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.20
K/9
9.7
50
Toss-up
NRFI+105
YRFI-145
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MILMILatBALBAL
O/U 8
4:05 PM
Camden YardsPF 1.0467°FMIL NRFI 61%BAL NRFI 71%
Robert Gasser
AwayRobert Gasser
ERA
4.30
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.27
K/9
8.6
Trevor Rogers
HomeTrevor Rogers
ERA
4.22
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.22
K/9
8.2
50
Toss-up
  • BAL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (29/41)
  • MIL batting lineup scores 5.2 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+105
YRFI-145
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PHIPHIatNYMNYM
O/U 8
4:10 PM
Citi FieldPF 0.9566°F10mphPHI NRFI 70%NYM NRFI 60%
Andrew Painter
AwayAndrew Painter
ERA
5.54
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.44
K/9
7.8
Christian Scott
HomeChristian Scott
ERA
3.76
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.26
K/9
10.8
46
Toss-up
  • Andrew Painter ERA 5.54 — elevated run risk
  • PHI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
NRFI+135
YRFI-185
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OAKOAKatCLECLE
O/U 8.5
6:10 PM
Progressive FieldPF 0.9862°FOAK NRFI 68%CLE NRFI 63%
Jacob Lopez
AwayJacob Lopez
ERA
5.02
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.48
K/9
8.4
Tanner Bibee
HomeTanner Bibee
ERA
4.16
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.18
K/9
7.1
34
Lean YRFI
  • Jacob Lopez ERA 5.02 — elevated run risk
NRFI+135
YRFI-180
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CHCCHCatCINCIN
O/U 9.5
6:40 PM
Great American Ball ParkPF 1.0969°FCHC NRFI 68%CIN NRFI 76%
Matthew Boyd
AwayMatthew Boyd
ERA
4.16
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.24
K/9
7.0
Nick Lodolo
HomeNick Lodolo
ERA
5.12
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.49
K/9
7.4
29
Lean YRFI
  • Nick Lodolo ERA 5.12 — elevated run risk
  • CHC batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.09) favors YRFI
  • Elevated game total (9.5) — more run potential
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
BOSBOSatTBTB
O/U 7.5
4:10 PM
Tropicana FieldPF 0.93DomeBOS NRFI 71%TB NRFI 70%
TBD
AwayTBD
Freddy Peralta
HomeFreddy Peralta
ERA
4.67
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
8.3
59.8
Toss-up
  • BOS batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (30/42)
  • TB batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
  • Fixed dome — controlled environment favors pitching
  • Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • Freddy Peralta ERA 4.67 — elevated run risk
NRFI+105
YRFI-140
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