Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMLB Analytics

First Inning Run Predictions

League base rate: NRFI has hit 47% of the last 405 games (30d).

How this score has actually done

Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 50% across 52 graded games, against a league base rate of 47.4%. Full record by tier.

Ask Bobby

15 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

2
Strong NRFI
4
Lean NRFI
5
Toss-up
3
Lean YRFI
1
Strong YRFI
TORTORatTEXTEX
O/U 7.5
2:35 PM
Globe Life FieldPF 0.98Retractable83°F10mphTOR NRFI 70%TEX NRFI 75%
Spencer Miles
AwaySpencer Miles
ERA
2.65
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.09
K/9
8.5
Jacob deGrom
HomeJacob deGrom
ERA
3.79
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.07
K/9
11.3
82
Strong NRFI
  • Spencer Miles has elite ERA (2.65) — strong NRFI signal
  • TOR batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
View on DraftKings
PHIPHIatNYMNYM
O/U 7.5
1:10 PM
Citi FieldPF 0.9566°FPHI NRFI 70%NYM NRFI 60%
Cristopher Sánchez
AwayCristopher Sánchez
ERA
2.93
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.22
K/9
10.0
Jonah Tong
HomeJonah Tong
ERA
3.43
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.19
K/9
8.6
81
Strong NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Cristopher Sánchez 2.93, Jonah Tong 3.43) — strong NRFI
  • PHI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Drizzle, 66°F — suppresses offense
  • Drizzle — wet conditions favor pitchers
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
View on DraftKings
KCKCatPITPIT
O/U 8.5
1:35 PM
PNC ParkPF 0.9671°FKC NRFI 63%PIT NRFI 72%
Michael Wacha
AwayMichael Wacha
ERA
3.34
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
7.1
Lake Bachar
HomeLake Bachar
ERA
3.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.12
K/9
9.4
73
Lean NRFI
  • PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
  • Drizzle — wet conditions favor pitchers
NRFI+120
YRFI-160
View on DraftKings
ATLATLatHOUHOU
O/U 8
2:10 PM
Minute Maid ParkPF 1.02Retractable80°FATL NRFI 76%HOU NRFI 64%
Martín Pérez
AwayMartín Pérez
ERA
3.07
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.26
K/9
6.5
Hunter Brown
HomeHunter Brown
ERA
3.43
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.29
K/9
10.2
67
Lean NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Martín Pérez 3.07, Hunter Brown 3.43) — strong NRFI
  • ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (31/41)
NRFI+145
YRFI-195
View on DraftKings
MILMILatBALBAL
O/U 7.5
7:20 PM
Camden YardsPF 1.0476°F10mphMIL NRFI 61%BAL NRFI 71%
Jacob Misiorowski
AwayJacob Misiorowski
ERA
1.89
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.81
K/9
13.2
Brandon Young
HomeBrandon Young
ERA
3.65
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
7.3
66
Lean NRFI
  • Jacob Misiorowski has elite ERA (1.89) — strong NRFI signal
  • BAL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (29/41)
  • MIL batting lineup scores 5.2 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI-145
YRFI+105
View on DraftKings
BOSBOSatTBTB
O/U 7.5
1:40 PM
Tropicana FieldPF 0.93DomeBOS NRFI 74%TB NRFI 73%
Patrick Sandoval
AwayPatrick Sandoval
ERA
4.99
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.79
K/9
9.7
Griffin Jax
HomeGriffin Jax
ERA
3.80
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.20
K/9
9.5
62
Lean NRFI
  • BOS batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (31/42)
  • TB batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
  • Fixed dome — controlled environment favors pitching
  • Patrick Sandoval ERA 4.99 — elevated run risk
  • Patrick Sandoval high WHIP (1.79) means more baserunners
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
MIAMIAatSDSD
O/U 8
4:10 PM
Petco ParkPF 0.9369°FMIA NRFI 85%SD NRFI 68%
Sandy Alcantara
AwaySandy Alcantara
ERA
3.84
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.23
K/9
6.5
Walker Buehler
HomeWalker Buehler
ERA
4.58
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
7.7
59
Toss-up
  • MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 85% of games (34/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
  • Walker Buehler ERA 4.58 — elevated run risk
NRFI+130
YRFI-175
View on DraftKings
DETDETatCHWCHW
O/U 8
2:10 PM
Guaranteed Rate FieldPF 1.0466°F14mphDET NRFI 63%CHW NRFI 67%
Troy Melton
AwayTroy Melton
ERA
2.52
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
7.3
Davis Martin
HomeDavis Martin
ERA
3.96
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.30
K/9
7.3
56
Toss-up
  • Troy Melton has elite ERA (2.52) — strong NRFI signal
NRFI+100
YRFI-135
View on DraftKings
OAKOAKatCLECLE
O/U 7
1:40 PM
Progressive FieldPF 0.9870°FOAK NRFI 68%CLE NRFI 60%
Jack Perkins
AwayJack Perkins
ERA
6.14
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.48
K/9
10.4
Gavin Williams
HomeGavin Williams
ERA
3.78
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
12.2
52
Toss-up
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • Jack Perkins ERA 6.14 — elevated run risk
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
View on DraftKings
NYYNYYatARIARI
O/U 8.5
4:10 PM
Chase FieldPF 1.05Retractable79°FNYY NRFI 80%ARI NRFI 80%
Will Warren
AwayWill Warren
ERA
3.89
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
8.9
Corbin Burnes
HomeCorbin Burnes
ERA
5.87
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.17
K/9
7.0
45
Toss-up
  • Corbin Burnes ERA 5.87 — elevated run risk
  • NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (31/39)
  • ARI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (32/40)
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
WSHWSHatSTLSTL
O/U 8.5
2:15 PM
Busch StadiumPF 0.9980°FWSH NRFI 82%STL NRFI 73%
Jake Irvin
AwayJake Irvin
ERA
5.51
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.41
K/9
9.0
Quinn Mathews
HomeQuinn Mathews
ERA
3.62
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.39
K/9
8.7
39
Lean YRFI
  • Jake Irvin ERA 5.51 — elevated run risk
  • WSH batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 82% of games (32/39)
  • STL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
MINMINatLAALAA
O/U 8
4:07 PM
Angel StadiumPF 0.9769°FMIN NRFI 60%LAA NRFI 68%
Dean Kremer
AwayDean Kremer
ERA
5.35
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.24
K/9
8.6
Ryan Johnson
HomeRyan Johnson
ERA
4.88
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
7.0
36
Lean YRFI
  • Dean Kremer ERA 5.35 — elevated run risk
  • Ryan Johnson ERA 4.88 — elevated run risk
NRFI+120
YRFI-160
View on DraftKings
SEASEAatCOLCOL
O/U 10.5
3:10 PM
Coors FieldPF 1.2756°FSEA NRFI 57%COL NRFI 73%
Kade Anderson
AwayKade Anderson
ERA
5.33
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.42
K/9
7.5
Tomoyuki Sugano
HomeTomoyuki Sugano
ERA
5.49
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
5.4
5
Strong YRFI
  • Kade Anderson ERA 5.33 — elevated run risk
  • Tomoyuki Sugano ERA 5.49 — elevated run risk
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.27) favors YRFI
  • High game total (10.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
  • Hitter-friendly weather: Clear, 56°F, 3mph wind — offense boost
NRFI+140
YRFI-190
View on DraftKings
SFSFatLADLAD
O/U 8
4:10 PM
Dodger StadiumPF 0.9767°FSF NRFI 53%LAD NRFI 73%
Matt Wilkinson
AwayMatt Wilkinson
ERA
4.58
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.12
K/9
5.5
TBD
HomeTBD
47.2
Toss-up
  • Matt Wilkinson ERA 4.58 — elevated run risk
  • LAD batting lineup scores 5.0 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • LAD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
NRFI+145
YRFI-200
View on DraftKings
CHCCHCatCINCIN
O/U 9.5
1:40 PM
Great American Ball ParkPF 1.0977°FCHC NRFI 70%CIN NRFI 76%
TBD
AwayTBD
Rhett Lowder
HomeRhett Lowder
ERA
5.79
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.52
K/9
7.1
35.3
Lean YRFI
  • Rhett Lowder ERA 5.79 — elevated run risk
  • Rhett Lowder high WHIP (1.52) means more baserunners
  • CHC batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.09) favors YRFI
  • Elevated game total (9.5) — more run potential
  • Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • CHC batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
NRFI+130
YRFI-180
View on DraftKings