Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMLB Analytics

First Inning Run Predictions

League base rate: NRFI has hit 49% of the last 393 games (30d).

How this score has actually done

Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 51.8% across 56 graded games, against a league base rate of 48.6%. Full record by tier.

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16 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

0
Strong NRFI
6
Lean NRFI
8
Toss-up
1
Lean YRFI
1
Strong YRFI
TBTBatNYYNYY
O/U 6.5
7:05 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0764°F19mphTB NRFI 71%NYY NRFI 80%
Ian Seymour
AwayIan Seymour
ERA
4.38
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.17
K/9
11.0
Gerrit Cole
HomeGerrit Cole
ERA
3.63
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
9.1
74
Lean NRFI
  • TB batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (29/41)
  • NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 80% of games (32/40)
  • Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI+100
YRFI-140
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CINCINatATLATL
O/U 7.5
7:15 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.0173°F9mphCIN NRFI 78%ATL NRFI 75%
Andrew Abbott
AwayAndrew Abbott
ERA
4.70
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.47
K/9
7.1
Chris Sale
HomeChris Sale
ERA
2.18
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.99
K/9
10.9
74
Lean NRFI
  • Chris Sale has elite ERA (2.18) — strong NRFI signal
  • CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (32/41)
  • ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
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MILMILatPHIPHI
O/U 7
6:40 PM
Citizens Bank ParkPF 1.0663°F14mphMIL NRFI 68%PHI NRFI 69%
Logan Henderson
AwayLogan Henderson
ERA
2.51
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.81
K/9
10.3
Aaron Nola
HomeAaron Nola
ERA
4.49
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.35
K/9
9.0
70
Lean NRFI
  • Logan Henderson has elite ERA (2.51) — strong NRFI signal
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI-110
YRFI-125
View on DraftKings
CLECLEatBOSBOS
O/U 6.5
7:10 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0863°F17mphCLE NRFI 64%BOS NRFI 76%
Foster Griffin
AwayFoster Griffin
ERA
3.67
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.19
K/9
8.2
Sonny Gray
HomeSonny Gray
ERA
2.82
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.16
K/9
8.1
70
Lean NRFI
  • Sonny Gray has elite ERA (2.82) — strong NRFI signal
  • BOS batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (31/41)
  • Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
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SDSDatLADLAD
O/U 8
10:10 PM
Dodger StadiumPF 0.9767°FSD NRFI 72%LAD NRFI 73%
Robbie Ray
AwayRobbie Ray
ERA
3.60
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.33
K/9
7.7
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
HomeYoshinobu Yamamoto
ERA
2.51
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.87
K/9
8.9
67
Lean NRFI
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto has elite ERA (2.51) — strong NRFI signal
  • SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
  • LAD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • LAD batting lineup scores 5.0 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
View on DraftKings
NYMNYMatTEXTEX
O/U 7.5
8:05 PM
Globe Life FieldPF 0.98Retractable87°FNYM NRFI 62%TEX NRFI 75%
Nolan McLean
AwayNolan McLean
ERA
3.18
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.19
K/9
9.8
Cody Bradford
HomeCody Bradford
ERA
4.19
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.50
K/9
4.7
60
Lean NRFI
  • TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
NRFI+100
YRFI-140
View on DraftKings
STLSTLatPITPIT
O/U 7
6:40 PM
PNC ParkPF 0.9661°F10mphSTL NRFI 73%PIT NRFI 74%
Matthew Liberatore
AwayMatthew Liberatore
ERA
5.36
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.49
K/9
8.9
Lake Bachar
HomeLake Bachar
ERA
3.56
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.14
K/9
9.4
59
Toss-up
  • STL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (28/38)
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • Matthew Liberatore ERA 5.36 — elevated run risk
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
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MINMINatSFSF
O/U 8
3:45 PM
Oracle ParkPF 0.9259°FMIN NRFI 60%SF NRFI 51%
Connor Prielipp
AwayConnor Prielipp
ERA
4.94
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.30
K/9
9.3
Cesar Perdomo
HomeCesar Perdomo
ERA
3.72
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.50
K/9
5.6
55
Toss-up
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 59°F — suppresses offense
  • Connor Prielipp ERA 4.94 — elevated run risk
NRFI-105
YRFI-130
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MIAMIAatCHCCHC
O/U 6.5
7:40 PM
Wrigley FieldPF 1.0562°F14mphMIA NRFI 85%CHC NRFI 67%
Ryan Gusto
AwayRyan Gusto
ERA
4.14
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.44
K/9
7.5
Kevin Gausman
HomeKevin Gausman
ERA
4.55
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.27
K/9
9.3
54
Toss-up
  • MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 85% of games (33/39)
  • Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • Kevin Gausman ERA 4.55 — elevated run risk
  • CHC batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
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HOUHOUatSEASEA
O/U 7.5
10:10 PM
T-Mobile ParkPF 0.95Retractable55°FHOU NRFI 62%SEA NRFI 56%
Ethan Pecko
AwayEthan Pecko
ERA
3.77
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.12
K/9
6.0
George Kirby
HomeGeorge Kirby
ERA
4.24
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.39
K/9
7.6
52
Toss-up
NRFI+110
YRFI-150
View on DraftKings
WSHWSHatDETDET
O/U 7.5
1:10 PM
Comerica ParkPF 0.9663°F15mphWSH NRFI 85%DET NRFI 66%
Richard Lovelady
AwayRichard Lovelady
ERA
3.86
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.84
K/9
8.3
Framber Valdez
HomeFramber Valdez
ERA
4.06
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
6.9
50
Toss-up
  • WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 85% of games (33/39)
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 63°F — suppresses offense
  • Richard Lovelady high WHIP (1.84) means more baserunners
  • WSH batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
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LAALAAatOAKOAK
O/U 9.5
9:40 PM
Oakland ColiseumPF 0.9259°FLAA NRFI 68%OAK NRFI 68%
Walbert Ureña
AwayWalbert Ureña
ERA
2.74
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.21
K/9
8.7
Jeffrey Springs
HomeJeffrey Springs
ERA
6.18
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.47
K/9
7.1
50
Toss-up
  • Walbert Ureña has elite ERA (2.74) — strong NRFI signal
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 59°F — suppresses offense
  • Jeffrey Springs ERA 6.18 — elevated run risk
  • Elevated game total (9.5) — more run potential
NRFI+110
YRFI-145
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CHWCHWatKCKC
O/U 8.5
7:40 PM
Kauffman StadiumPF 0.9768°FCHW NRFI 63%KC NRFI 64%
Bryan Hudson
AwayBryan Hudson
ERA
3.03
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.21
K/9
8.1
Seth Lugo
HomeSeth Lugo
ERA
5.06
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.46
K/9
7.0
36
Lean YRFI
  • Seth Lugo ERA 5.06 — elevated run risk
NRFI+135
YRFI-185
View on DraftKings
ARIARIatCOLCOL
O/U 11.5
8:40 PM
Coors FieldPF 1.2764°FARI NRFI 74%COL NRFI 75%
Merrill Kelly
AwayMerrill Kelly
ERA
5.00
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.47
K/9
6.4
Mason Adams
HomeMason Adams
ERA
5.09
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.65
K/9
9.0
9
Strong YRFI
  • Merrill Kelly ERA 5.00 — elevated run risk
  • Mason Adams ERA 5.09 — elevated run risk
  • Mason Adams high WHIP (1.65) means more baserunners
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.27) favors YRFI
  • High game total (11.5) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
  • Hitter-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 64°F, 2mph wind — offense boost
NRFI+145
YRFI-200
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TORTORatBALBAL
O/U 7.5
1:35 PM
Camden YardsPF 1.0461°F12mphTOR NRFI 69%BAL NRFI 70%
TBD
AwayTBD
TBD
HomeTBD
52
Toss-up
  • BAL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
NRFI+105
YRFI-145
View on DraftKings
TORTORatBALBAL
O/U 8
6:35 PM
Camden YardsPF 1.0461°F12mphTOR NRFI 69%BAL NRFI 70%
TBD
AwayTBD
TBD
HomeTBD
50.5
Toss-up
  • BAL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings