First Inning Run Predictions
League base rate: NRFI has hit 48% of the last 396 games (30d).
How this score has actually done
Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 52.5% across 59 graded games, against a league base rate of 48.5%. Full record by tier.
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17 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run
Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather
1
Strong NRFI
7
Lean NRFI
9
Toss-up
0
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
TEXat
MINO/U 7
8:10 PM
Target FieldPF 1.0159°FTEX NRFI 73%MIN NRFI 59%
AwayJacob deGrom
ERA
3.86
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
11.1
HomeJoe Ryan
ERA
3.83
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.18
K/9
9.8
75
Strong NRFI- TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
- Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI-125
YRFI-110
LAAat
SEAO/U 6.5
10:10 PM
T-Mobile ParkPF 0.95Retractable55°FLAA NRFI 73%SEA NRFI 60%
AwayReid Detmers
ERA
3.47
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.05
K/9
10.3
HomeBryce Miller
ERA
3.99
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.15
K/9
8.9
71
Lean NRFI- LAA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
- Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI-110
YRFI-125
LADat
SFO/U 7.5
10:15 PM
Oracle ParkPF 0.9260°F10mphLAD NRFI 73%SF NRFI 50%
AwayTarik Skubal
ERA
2.85
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.99
K/9
10.4
HomeYunior Marte
ERA
4.66
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.40
K/9
5.1
68
Lean NRFI- Tarik Skubal has elite ERA (2.85) — strong NRFI signal
- LAD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
- Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
- Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 60°F — suppresses offense
- Yunior Marte ERA 4.66 — elevated run risk
- SF batters score in the 1st inning 20/40 games (50%)
NRFI-140
YRFI+105
CLEat
KCO/U 7
7:40 PM
Kauffman StadiumPF 0.9760°F8mphCLE NRFI 68%KC NRFI 64%
AwayGavin Williams
ERA
3.63
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.08
K/9
12.1
HomeNoah Cameron
ERA
3.92
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.20
K/9
8.1
66
Lean NRFI- Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI-110
YRFI-120
PITat
DETO/U 8
6:40 PM
Comerica ParkPF 0.9649°FPIT NRFI 72%DET NRFI 66%
AwayBubba Chandler
ERA
4.34
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
8.2
HomeJackson Jobe
ERA
3.98
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.20
K/9
9.5
61
Lean NRFI- PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
- Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 49°F — suppresses offense
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
TBat
PHIO/U 6.5
6:40 PM
Citizens Bank ParkPF 1.0659°F13mphTB NRFI 73%PHI NRFI 69%
AwayFreddy Peralta
ERA
4.56
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.33
K/9
8.4
HomeCristopher Sánchez
ERA
2.93
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.22
K/9
9.9
61
Lean NRFI- Cristopher Sánchez has elite ERA (2.93) — strong NRFI signal
- TB batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (30/41)
- Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
- Freddy Peralta ERA 4.56 — elevated run risk
NRFI+105
YRFI-145
STLat
MILO/U 8
7:40 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable58°FSTL NRFI 73%MIL NRFI 68%
AwayMichael McGreevy
ERA
3.84
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.25
K/9
6.2
HomeRobert Gasser
ERA
4.01
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.24
K/9
8.2
53
Toss-up- STL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
- MIL batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+120
YRFI-165
HOUat
OAKO/U 9
9:40 PM
Oakland ColiseumPF 0.9258°FHOU NRFI 64%OAK NRFI 70%
AwayHunter Brown
ERA
3.26
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.27
K/9
10.6
HomeJacob Lopez
ERA
5.68
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.53
K/9
8.3
49
Toss-up- Jacob Lopez ERA 5.68 — elevated run risk
- Jacob Lopez high WHIP (1.53) means more baserunners
- Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
- OAK batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
- Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
- Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 58°F — suppresses offense
NRFI-105
YRFI-130
BALat
NYYO/U 6.5
4:05 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0760°F15mphBAL NRFI 70%NYY NRFI 78%
AwayTrevor Rogers
ERA
4.07
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.18
K/9
8.3
HomeBrendan Beck
ERA
8.22
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.57
K/9
5.9
48
Toss-up- Brendan Beck ERA 8.22 — elevated run risk
- Brendan Beck high WHIP (1.57) means more baserunners
- BAL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
- NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (32/41)
- Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
- Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 60°F — suppresses offense
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
BALatNYYO/U 6.5
7:05 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0760°F15mphBAL NRFI 70%NYY NRFI 78%
AwayTrevor Rogers
ERA
4.07
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.18
K/9
8.3
HomeBrendan Beck
ERA
8.22
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.57
K/9
5.9
48
Toss-up- Brendan Beck ERA 8.22 — elevated run risk
- Brendan Beck high WHIP (1.57) means more baserunners
- BAL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
- NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (32/41)
- Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
- Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 60°F — suppresses offense
NRFI+110
YRFI-150
COLat
CHWO/U 8
7:40 PM
Guaranteed Rate FieldPF 1.0459°FCOL NRFI 78%CHW NRFI 64%
AwayTomoyuki Sugano
ERA
5.36
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.33
K/9
5.5
HomeSean Burke
ERA
3.40
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.20
K/9
9.6
47
Toss-up- Tomoyuki Sugano ERA 5.36 — elevated run risk
- COL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (31/40)
NRFI+130
YRFI-175
CHCat
BOSO/U 6.5
1:05 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0857°F12mphCHC NRFI 70%BOS NRFI 76%
AwayDavid Peterson
ERA
4.96
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.51
K/9
8.2
HomeBrayan Bello
ERA
4.49
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
7.2
44
Toss-up- David Peterson ERA 4.96 — elevated run risk
- David Peterson high WHIP (1.51) means more baserunners
- CHC batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
- Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.08) favors YRFI
- CHC batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
- BOS batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (31/41)
- Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI+110
YRFI-145
CHCatBOSO/U 6.5
6:05 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0857°F12mphCHC NRFI 70%BOS NRFI 76%
AwayDavid Peterson
ERA
4.96
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.51
K/9
8.2
HomeBrayan Bello
ERA
4.49
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
7.2
44
Toss-up- David Peterson ERA 4.96 — elevated run risk
- David Peterson high WHIP (1.51) means more baserunners
- CHC batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
- Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.08) favors YRFI
- CHC batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
- BOS batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (31/41)
- Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
ATLat
MIAO/U 8
7:10 PM
LoanDepot ParkPF 0.91Retractable78°F8mphATL NRFI 75%MIA NRFI 88%
AwayTBD
HomeEury Pérez
ERA
4.14
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.27
K/9
9.7
65
Lean NRFI- ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
- MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 88% of games (35/40)
- Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.91) supports NRFI
- Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
NRFI+120
YRFI-160
ARIat
SDO/U 7.5
9:40 PM
Petco ParkPF 0.9369°FARI NRFI 74%SD NRFI 72%
AwayBrandon Pfaadt
ERA
3.72
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.17
K/9
6.1
HomeTBD
61.2
Lean NRFI- ARI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (29/39)
- SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
- Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
- Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
NRFI+130
YRFI-180
NYMat
WSHO/U 8
6:45 PM
Nationals ParkPF 0.9956°F9mphNYM NRFI 64%WSH NRFI 85%
AwayTBD
HomeAndrew Alvarez
ERA
3.17
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.26
K/9
8.9
57
Toss-up- WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 85% of games (33/39)
- Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
- WSH batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+105
YRFI-145
CINat
TORO/U 7.5
7:07 PM
Rogers CentrePF 1.03Retractable52°FCIN NRFI 74%TOR NRFI 69%
AwayNick Lodolo
ERA
5.04
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.47
K/9
7.0
HomeTBD
45.1
Toss-up- Nick Lodolo ERA 5.04 — elevated run risk
- Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
- CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (31/42)
NRFI+145
YRFI-200